The meaning of Surrey South

BC Liberal candidate Eleanore Sturko marched to victory on Saturday in Surrey South, winning a seat that the party would typically view as a ‘safe seat’ until recently.

Here are the results of the by-election compared to the 2017 and 2020 general election results:

*By-election results are not final

Hot take:

  1. The BC Liberals won, which was no small thing. A loss here would have been a major setback. After being pummelled by John Horgan’s NDP in the 2020 general election, the BC Liberals have shown they can win again, albeit in very friendly territory. Moreover, the BC Liberals gain a potential frontbencher from the Lower Mainland who, among other things, presents a new face for the party in the LGBTQ+ community.
  2. NDP poll results didn’t translate to Surrey South. In 2020, the NDP won the popular vote 48% to 34% – a massive margin. Since then, the NDP have sustained that polling gap in many polls, including a Leger poll that recently showed a 16 point gap. With those kind of numbers, we could have expected a close race in Surrey South, similar to 2020. Instead, the final result (percentage of vote) looks very much like the 2017 dead-heat general election. The NDP didn’t go all-out to win this by-election – the leadership vacuum existing between Premier Horgan packing his bags and David Eby, presumably, waiting to pick up the keys may have been a factor.
  3. Neither party got the vote out – while the BC Liberals got enough votes out to win, both the BC Liberals and NDP received significantly fewer votes than previous elections. Low turnout is normal for a by-election, indicating low voter interest and perhaps low voter anger too. The summer timing certainly conspired against high turnout as well.
  4. The BC Conservatives showed up and it didn’t impact the result– the BC Conservatives didn’t run a candidate in 2017 or 2020, but they showed up for the by-election and garnered about 13% of the vote. This could have been highly problematic for the BC Liberals in a close race, but Sturko still won with a Cadieux-like margin. Let’s say Jinny Sims becomes mayor and resigns her seat in neighbouring Panorama – a 13% BC Conservative vote there would make life more difficult for BC Liberal chances.
  5. What happened to the Greens? – Sonia Furstenau’s Greens fell to less than 4% of the vote. Is the Green brand in a funk? Normally, a by-election would be a time to stand out, but they ended up in fourth, here, well behind the BC Conservative. Surrey is not a Green hotspot though so their attention may be elsewhere.

I recently wrote about the consequential BC by-elections of the past 50 years. In Surrey South, BC Liberals held a seat they have traditionally held so it doesn’t appear to be historically important, except that the margin of victory could indicate that BC politics is returning to a more competitive footing. The by-election result may not be the cause of a new dynamic, but rather an indicator of what is already taking place. The 2020 general election was an outlier in terms of the pandemic and that the NDP had a major leadership advantage. Perhaps it was an aberration, like 2001, and we are slowly returning to the polarized, competitive political landscape that has been typical of BC politics since the mid 1970s.

I guess you could say the Surrey South by-election was like an NHL exhibition game – interesting, sparsely attended, an opportunity to see some new talent (Sturko), but the real action will be when the regular season starts in December once the new NDP leader gets on the ice.

The consequential by-elections of the past 50 years in British Columbia

Premier John Horgan called a by-election in Surrey South for September 10th

What happens in a by-election, anyway?  For a brief time, all of the political parties are focused organizationally on one place because someone resigned, died, or, worse yet, was recalled.  By-elections usually have low voter turnout and may appear to average voters to have little consequence to their daily lives. The host riding is deluged with professional campaigners and out-of-town volunteers that door knock the riding like never before then, when it’s over, they all go home.  By-elections are a pulse taker, a message tester, and a get-out-the-vote drill –  a political laboratory for political parties to try new things to apply in the next general election.  Sometimes, they are the doorway for a new political leader to enter the Legislature (or prematurely return to private life).

And while it seems that the Surrey South by-election is a non-event that won’t have any impact on the power balance in the Legislature, by-elections in British Columbia have often been harbingers of things to come.  In the past 50 years, there are many examples of by-elections influencing future events, especially in regard to the leadership of ‘free enterprise’ forces in BC.

1973: The Re-Making of the Free Enterprise Coalition Part 1

In 1972, Dave Barrett’s NDP put an end to 20 years of rule by W.A.C. Bennett and the Social Credit Party.  In September 1973, Bill Bennett was elected in the Okanagan South by-election, assuming his father’s seat.  However, this was not necessarily a straightforward dynastic succession. For starters, the by-election took place in the midst of a leadership race to replace Bennett the Elder.  If Bennett the Younger lost the by-election, it would have been a pretty hard sell that he could win the province.  Meanwhile, 33-year-old BC Conservative leader Derril Warren had led his party in the 1972 election from zilch to 10% of the popular vote, vote-splitting the Socreds and contributing largely to their defeat.  Now, a year later, Warren was still chasing the Bennetts in a ‘By-election Battle for Free Enterprise’ between the tired old Socreds and the surging Conservatives.     

1973 by-election set Bill Bennett on a path to power

In Bob Plecas’s biography of Bill Bennett, he described the view of the Vancouver business establishment that Warren was BC’s version of Peter Lougheed, the popular Alberta premier, who had taken the Alberta Progressive Conservatives from the wilderness to power in 1971, vanquishing the tired Alberta Social Credit dynasty that had governed for over 35 years.  Recounted Bennett in Plecas’s book, “I had to set the trap.  First of all, I had to wait and wait and wait, making it possible so he [Warren] could be drawn in”.  It was no sure thing that Bennett would win. According to Allen Garr in his book Tough Guy: Bill Bennett and the Taking of British Columbia, “Twenty-five Kelowna businessmen gathered at one of their regular watering holes to decide who they would back in the by-election, and they had two choices: Bill Bennett… and the new leader of the BC Tories [Warren]. The vote was twenty-two to three in Warren’s favour. When Bill heard about the decision he went on an arm-twisting mission against his old high-school buddies.”  When the Vancouver Province endorsed Warren as the best pick to take on the Barrett government, “ten thousand tear sheets were distributed across the riding.  It reinforced anti-Vancouver sentiment, the big-city-knows-best feeling that many residents feel.  Suits from Vancouver seldom understand the Interior, and the backlash hurt Warren,” wrote Plecas.

A day before the vote, Warren complained to Sun reporter Marjorie Nichols, “The people running the Social Credit show” had carried on a vicious personal campaign.  “One Social Credit campaigner said they had a tape… they didn’t say whether they tapped the phone or what.  They said they had a tape of me applying for a Social Credit membership but being rejected.”  

Bill Bennett prevailed, albeit with a modest 39% of the vote, holding off Warren who came in third with 24%, behind the NDP.  Bennett would go on to win the leadership, recruit five MLAs to cross the floor (3 Liberal, 1 Conservative, 1 NDP), recruit former BC Liberal leadership candidate Bill Vander Zalm, and lead a revitalized Socred-led free enterprise coalition to a decisive victory in the 1975 election over Barrett’s NDP.  In fact, the NDP’s popular vote barely changed but Bennett’s free enterprise unification plan, starting with the 1973 by-election, put most free enterprise votes under his umbrella.  Warren didn’t make it to the 1975 election and both the Conservatives and Liberals collapsed. As a post-script, Barrett lost his own seat in the 1975 election and would contest and win the 1976 Vancouver East by-election, which took place when outgoing cabinet minister Bob Williams made way to allow Barrett to re-enter the Legislature.  Barrett and Bennett would face each other two more times, with Bennett the Younger winning each time.

1981: The Roadmap to Victory

Mid-way through Bennett’s second term, the Socreds were flagging.  The 1979 election win was the most polarizing result in BC electoral history and Bennett realized his party would need to regroup and retool. Bennett dispatched his friend Hugh Harris to survey the landscape outside BC with a view to modernizing how the party fought elections, eventually gravitating toward the “Big Blue Machine” approach of the Ontario Progressive Conservative Party.

Harris brought back his learnings in time for the 1981 Kamloops by-election created when Socred MLA and Minister Rafe Mair resigned to pursue a career in talk radio. The smart money was on the NDP picking up the then-bellwether seat of Kamloops (“so goes Kamloops, so goes the province”).  

As Plecas describes, “The political machine that Bennett had built using Hugh Harris’s advice was ready for a test drive… For most of the by-election, Barrett was in New Zealand attending a world conference on socialism.  Every weekend of the by-election Bennett was in the riding spending day after day in the small towns that surround Kamloops.”  The modernized campaign model was “coupled with the efforts of thousands of volunteers, many who travelled up to the Loops for the weekend.  They out organized the NDP and worked door by door on the ground”.  Bud Smith, who had worked closely with Harris rebuilding the party, ran the local campaign.

Local Socred candidate Claude Richmond was propelled into office, aided by Harris’s blueprint, with a win that was arguably a template for the forthcoming 1983 general election.  The 1981 by-election win remains a part of free enterprise lore. 

1988-1989: Socred Death Spiral

In 1988 and 1989, the Vander Zalm government was beset by controversy and being beset by controversy is not a great time to face a series of by-elections where you have to defend your own seats.  First up was Boundary-Similkameen in June 1988.  Long-time MLA Jim Hewitt resigned. The riding had been Socred even before his time; not even the Barrett sweep in 1972 could wrest control of it away.  The NDP’s Bill Barlee stepped up to run, after previous unsuccessful attempts, and wiped the floor with the Socreds winning by 17%.  The win sent shockwaves through the Socred government.  A footnote to this race was Liberal Judi Tyabji winning 11% after a high-profile campaign.  BC hadn’t seen the last of Tyabji nor the new BC Liberal leader Gordon Wilson.

Next up in the Socred By-election Horror Series was Vancouver Point Grey in March 1989.  The circumstances of this by-election are historically important.  First-term Socred MLA Kim Campbell resigned to run federally after falling out with Premier Vander Zalm on the abortion issue (and other issues).  Campbell won federal office as a Progressive Conservative and was prime minister within five years, the first and only female prime minister in Canadian.  Back in Pt. Grey, the Socreds put up financial analyst Michael Levy while the NDP nominated Dr. Tom Perry in an upset over establishment NDP candidate Johanna den Hertog.  Perry trounced the Socreds, winning 53% of the vote.  (The NDP picked up a second win that night in Nanaimo where Jan Pullinger assumed the seat from outgoing veteran Dave Stupich, but there was little doubt about the outcome there.)

BC Liberal leader and Sunshine Coast resident Gordon Wilson parachuted into Point Grey as well.  His campaign did not lack for money and had high hopes given that the riding overlapped with the federal riding of Liberal leader John Turner, and received a boost from popular federal Liberal leadership candidate Jean Chrétien.  An interesting back story is that when Kim Campbell resigned in the fall of 1988, businessman Jack Poole was traveling BC meeting grassroots Liberals to assess the viability of reviving and leading the party. Though Wilson was leader, Poole and his team, which included former leader Gordon Gibson, were of a mind that there needed to be a fully funded, credible free enterprise alternative to Vander Zalm’s Socreds that was seemingly beyond the capability of a Sunshine Coast college instructor/pig farmer (Wilson). West side Vancouver Liberals were very keen on Poole, but over the fall, he got cold feet. After the federal election concluded, Poole ditched the idea, and Wilson swiftly announced he would run in Pt. Grey, over the wishes of the locals. I would say the Leader always has the prerogative to run, especially if he or she doesn’t have a seat, but in this case, it did not end up happily ever after. Wilson came a disappointing third with 20% of the vote (he would have their day in the sun later).

Onto the Cariboo for a by-election caused by the death of long-time MLA Alex Fraser, an institution in the region.  Like Boundary-Similkameen and Point Grey, Cariboo was a 2-member seat, an oddity of our system until 1986.  Fraser’s seat-mate was Socred MLA Neil Vant who was assuredly not an institution in the Cariboo.  Expecting to retain the riding, the Socreds had a hotly contested nomination meeting between auctioneer and Vander Zalm-loyalist Joe Wark and Quesnel Mayor Mike Pearce.  Wark won by one vote squeaker (337-336) at the Williams Lake curling rink, and remarked, “We have no room in the Social Credit party for rebels and that sort of thing”.  Pearce, who self-described as representing a “new style”, was probably more electable, in part because he was endorsed by Alex Fraser’s widow, Gertrude.  Wark was a ‘Zalmoid’ and bedevilled by Premier Vander Zalm’s decision to remove Alex Fraser from cabinet while he was battling throat cancer.  During the by-election campaign, Fraser’s widow suggested strongly that the NDP candidate, Dave Zirnhelt, would be just fine as MLA. Zirnhelt, a rancher and horse logger, had run as a Liberal in the 1969 provincial election before migrating to the NDP.  He would go on to wallop Wark with 56% of the vote and serve as a senior cabinet minister in the 1990s. More than Boundary-Similkameen, this result was a very bad omen for the Socreds.    Pearce would try again and got the Socred nod in the 1991 election in Cariboo North (the riding was split) and would lose to the NDP’s Frank Garden. The Liberals were confined to a meagre 3% in the by-election despite their authentic and good-humoured candidate Darwin Netzel. He would contest the 1991 election in Cariboo North and see his vote grow 6-fold.

Finally, and mercifully, the fourth and final by-election featuring a Socred-held riding was Oak Bay-Gordon Head, held on December 13, 1989.  Attorney General Brian Smith resigned his seat following a public clash with Premier Vander Zalm.  Smith was the runner-up in the 1986 leadership race to Zalm, but it didn’t take long for their working relationship to go off the rails.  The Socreds recruited a top-notch candidate, Susan Brice, then the Mayor of Oak Bay.  They could not have found a better candidate. Brice and her campaign manager, Frank Leonard, ran essentially a local campaign focusing on her strengths and downplaying the premier.  Said Brice, “People want greater tolerance from the government, the party and the Premier.” The NDP nominated Elizabeth Cull who started out as the underdog but was backed by a major organizing machine on the South Island that could taste victory.  The Liberals nominated an active party member, Paul McKivett, who ran a fully funded campaign with lots of volunteers too, and attracted support from Socreds who wanted to see the end of Vander Zalm. In fact, McKivett’s 9% was probably the difference in Cull’s 377 vote win over Brice.  There was a sense that Zalm would pack it in if he lost Oak Bay-Gordon Head and for 35 days he kept British Columbians in suspense.  In January 1990, he scheduled a province-wide televised address to reset his agenda and managed to survive a little longer in the job before being forced from office a year later.  Cull would go on to become Health Minister and Finance Minister in the Harcourt government.

Zalm escaped the hangman’s gallows in 1990 but would resign from office in 1991.

Each by-election loss reinforced the death spiral of the government.  Heretofore safe seats were coughed up.  Earlier in the decade, the Bill Bennett Socreds confidently won the Kamloops by-election demoralizing the NDP.  Now, later in the same decade and under a different leader, the by-election losses were crushing to the Socreds and helped create an inevitability of NDP victory.  Mike Harcourt would cruise to victory in 1991 with a majority government.  The by-elections also meant something for the third-party BC Liberals.  While their by-election results were underwhelming compared to the NDP, they were a training ground for leader Gordon Wilson.  His breakthrough in 1991, when the party went from zero seats to 17 and Official Opposition, was a result, in part, of their determination to hang in there and be in a position to take advantage of good luck and timing when it materialized during the general election campaign. Thus, as events turned out, the Socred death spiral benefited the BC Liberals every bit as much as the NDP. 

1994-95: The Re-Making of the Free Enterprise Coalition Part 2

The 1991 general election remade BC politics with the BC Liberals jumping to Official Opposition and the Socreds declining to third-party status.  While the BC Liberals now had the advantage, the question was not settled as to which party would lead free enterprise forces going forward.  By 1993, each party had a new leader.  BC Liberal leader Gordon Wilson lost his leadership to Vancouver Mayor Gordon Campbell, while Socred legend Grace McCarthy took on the task to rebuild the party she had helped save, with Bill Bennett, in the 1970s.

A pair of Abbotsford-area by-elections in 1994 and 1995 would settle the question of who would lead free enterprise – for the most part.  

One of the seven Socreds elected in 1991, Matsqui MLA Peter Dueck, decided it was time to force the issue and resigned his seat after having had spent time as an Independent MLA.  Meanwhile, BC Liberal MLA Art Cowie (Vancouver-Quilchena) resigned his seat to make way for Campbell.  Two by-elections were called for February 17, 1994.  Socred leader Grace McCarthy chose to run in Socred-friendly Matsqui rather than take on Campbell near her home base in Vancouver.  Campbell would cruise to an easy victory and the real fight was in Matsqui where the BC Liberals could put a stake in the heart of the Socreds for good.

In Matsqui local members of the BC Liberal Party gathered at a high school gymnasium to nominate their giant killer. Some BC Liberal insiders favoured a Vancouver lawyer and high school basketball star who had strong ties to the area, but a young country lawyer and school trustee upset those plans by winning 102 – 84 (back when nomination meeting results were disclosed). The task of defeating Socred legend Grace McCarthy was thus on the shoulders of Mike de Jong, then shy of his 30th birthday.  It was a new vs. old generational match up.  De Jong had a spirited team, led by campaign manager Dave Holmberg and wily ex-scribe Mark Rushton.  The Socreds dug in and had a deep supporters list to draw on though there was much attrition to the oncoming BC Liberals and bleeding to fledgling Reform BC (unaffiliated with federal Reform Party) and the Family Coalition Party.   A sidebar to the Battle of Free Enterprise was the NDP candidate situation.  Sam Wagar was nominated but it became known to the media that the government’s candidate in the Bible Belt was actually a witch.  Wagar, who practiced the Wiccan religion, was non-plussed, but it was apparently too much for the political managers at Party HQ.  Wagar was sent packing as a new candidate was conjured. So much for religious freedom.

It was a heated campaign in the depths of the Matsqui winter. All candidates meetings were tense and scrappy. BC Liberal plants took the microphone to ask McCarthy detailed local questions to make hay of her parachute candidacy. De Jong defeated McCarthy by a mere 42 (41.77% to 41.45%) votes in a dramatic win. As Vaughn Palmer reported, at about 10:15pm, de Jong showed up in his blue Miata sports car, “mounted the platform amid general delirium and shouts of ‘Banzai’ from an enthusiastic Japanese supporter”.

A key part of the story was also the other parties: Reform took 1,250 votes and Family Coalition Party took 275 votes, both making it harder for the Socreds to save their leader.

 An interesting recap of the byelection was written by reporter Chris Foulds in 2017.  

Mike de Jong has been around for a long time, but not as long as Vaughn Palmer!

The free enterprise question seemingly settled, McCarthy sailed off into the political sunset.  But the issue of who would lead the free enterprise coalition was actually still unsettled.   With the ink barely dry on the by-election results in Matsqui, Social Credit MLAs Jack Weisgerber, Lyall Hanson, Richard Neufeld, and Len Fox stunned BC Liberals and Socreds alike by joining the BC Reform Party, whose leader, Ron Gamble, had contested the Matsqui by-election.  Reform was a hot brand federally at the time and had no baggage provincially.  Weisgerber and co. wanted a fresh start.   This was a massive setback for consolidating and unifying the free enterprise vote. 

Fast forward one year to 1995.  One of the last remaining Socred MLAs, Harry de Jong, resigned to run for mayor of Abbotsford. This again set up a ‘Battle for Free Enterprise’.  This time, the BC Liberals nominated dairy farmer John van Dongen while BC Reform – now led by Weisgerber and the competing free enterprise alternative to the BC Liberals – put forward Rev. Bill Kilpatrick. In contrast to 1994, the BC Liberals brought a more modernized approach and more resources, spearheaded by newly recruited provincial campaign director Greg Lyle.  Reform BC had a strong brand that was aligned with historic voting patterns in the Fraser Valley.  Liberal?! In the Fraser Valley? That was a tough sell.  But the BC Liberals gutted it out with van Dongen winning by 291 votes after a late campaign controversy dogged Kilpatrick.   

Now, the free enterprise coalition question was mainly settled, again, so it seemed.  Mike Harcourt’s NDP government was in a tailspin and Campbell’s BC Liberals were way ahead in the polls. The NDP switched leaders, with Glen Clark taking the helm and reviving the party’s fortunes.   In the subsequent 1996 election, Campbell’s BC Liberals won 42% of the popular vote, more than the NDP, but had fewer seats, which is all that matters.  BC Reform had about 9% of the vote and 2 seats and played the spoiler, especially up country.  The BC Liberals had become the dominant free enterprise alternative, but not dominant enough to defeat the NDP.

1997-99: The Re-Making of the Free Enterprise Coalition Part 3

Never before had the NDP won back-to-back general elections in BC.  After the 1996 campaign, there was a sense of urgency that free enterprise forces needed to unify, however, there was still some disagreement that the BC Liberals were the best vehicle.   Glen Clark’s NDP government got off to a very rough start, but Gordon Campbell still had to prove that his BC Liberals could go the distance if he was going to get another shot.  From 1997-99, he faced a string of by-election tests – in his own party’s seats – that would settle the question once and for all.

First up was Surrey-White Rock.  Wilf Hurd, elected as a BC Liberal in 1991, decided to try his luck in federal politics.  Once an MLA is nominated as a candidate in a federal campaign, he or she must resign their seat in the provincial Legislature, even if they lose their federal bid (as Hurd did).  Former White Rock Mayor Gordie Hogg stepped up to contest the riding for the BC Liberals.  Hogg had encountered some negative publicity not long before dating back to his time as a provincial public servant in the Corrections branch, which created some nervousness among BC Liberals, but he had been a popular mayor. He was challenged by BC Reform candidate David Secord.  South Surrey-White Rock seemed like fertile territory for Reform – it voted strongly Reform federally and had the demographics that suited them (old and white).   It did not look like an easy win for the BC Liberals as they had been having a rocky year, but Hogg won the by-election handily, with 52% of the vote to Reform’s 26%. The NDP were an afterthought at 12% (no one expected them to contend). Campbell’s BC Liberals had passed this test.  Shortly after the by-election result, Peace River North MLA Richard Neufeld, elected as a Reform MLA in 1996, crossed the floor to the BC Liberals, helping to fortify the BC Liberals.

Next up was the Parksville-Qualicum by-election in 1998.  This by-election came about in the oddest of circumstances when BC Liberal MLA Paul Reitsma, a five-term mayor of Parksville elected to the Legislature in 1996, conducted a comically inept stealth mission on the letters to the editor pages. Concocting the identity of ‘Warren Betanko’, Reitsma fired in letters to the local paper under Betanko’s name that attacked his enemies.  The local paper got wise and outed Reitsma publicly one morning.  By lunchtime, Reitsma was out of caucus.  Not long after, local residents launched a recall campaign, which had never been successfully undertaken before (recall laws had only been in place for a few years).  The recall mechanism was viewed as impossible given the high bar to exceed, however, the good people of Parksville-Qualicum got busy with supporters of all parties backing the petition.  The petition was filed, but before the signatures were counted, Reitsma read the room and resigned his seat, paying a very steep price for his shenanigans.  Because of Gordon Campbell’s quick action to jettison Reitsma, the BC Liberals didn’t wear the scandal and got to work on finding a replacement.  

At the mid-point of 1998, the Glen Clark government was doing very poorly in the polls.  BC’s economy had gone from “first to worst” in Canada – a mantra of the BC Liberals – and the Fast Ferries were a monumental political disaster for the government.  To those not familiar, the government had commissioned three fast ferries, built in BC, that never worked properly costing over a half-billion dollars.  They were eventually scrapped.  The business community was very riled up as well and much more vocal against the government than they are today. Into the breach went former NDP MLA Leonard Krog who held Parksville-Qualicum between 1991-96 before losing to Reitmsa.  Krog was well respected locally and probably the best candidate possible for the NDP.  The BC Liberals had an open nomination race (remember those?) with six or seven candidates vying to be candidate.  In a packed auditorium in North Nanaimo, BC Liberal members chose shellfish farmer Judith Reid over a slew of credible candidates – a mayor, a councillor, a former president of Reform BC, a regional district director – a sign of a growing and healthy party.

Though politically inexperienced, Reid was a fresh face for the BC Liberals.  She was challenged by a hard-right Reform candidate that was supported by – he’s baaaack – former Premier Bill Vander Zalm.  The by-election was a long grind as the NDP waited until the last moment to call it, taking place December 14, 1998.  During the campaign, Krog complained that the Glen Clark government was an “albatross around his neck”.  Reid clobbered Krog 53% to 23%.  It was a decisive win in a seat that the NDP had barely lost in 1996.  Reform lost votes, falling further behind. The BC Liberal free enterprise train was speeding down the tracks. 

One more test.  In 1999, BC Liberal MLA Fred Gingell passed away after a battle with cancer.  Gingell, who had served as Opposition Leader between Gordon Wilson and Gordon Campbell, was a beloved figure in the party, and its conscience on finances and fiscal policy.  His riding, Delta South, was a BC Liberal stronghold under Fred and the opening drew a lot of interest.  Again, the Party unleashed an open nomination process that attracted multiple candidates and throngs of voting members. Local farming fixture Val Roddick prevailed on the final ballot, though was to set upon a somewhat crazy political path as Bill Vander Zalm had, by now, assumed control of the BC Reform Party and, as a resident of Delta South, he contested the seat.  BC Liberal free enterprise train? Bill Vander Zalm was prepared to stick up that train like Billy Miner and ride away with Gordon Campbell’s votes.

The by-election campaign was a tense affair as Roddick was very much the community candidate and not accustomed to Zalm’s showmanship nor the strong media interest from outside Delta.  Her campaign turned its guns on the former premier’s record and made the case for moving forward, not backward.  One of their ads warned against “Zalmnesia”. The BC Liberals brought in every available body and resource to get the job done and prevailed with 60% of the vote, almost double Zalm’s 33%.  Between the two parties taking up 93%, there wasn’t much room for others.  Though not expected to contend, the NDP government’s own candidate, Richard Tones, gained 2.44%, which may be a record for the lowest percentage every received by a government candidate in BC by-election history.  By the time the by-election took place, Glen Clark had resigned, the party was in shambles, and caretaker Premier Dan Miller was in place.   Credit to Tones for putting his name on the line and taking it for the team. That’s what party diehards do when things are grim.

About 18 months later, Gordon Campbell’s BC Liberals won 77 of 79 seats, and 57% of the vote, in the most lopsided win in BC electoral history.  The gauntlet of free enterprise tests in the 1990s would help them to a sixteen-year run in power from 2001-2017 and the undisputed free enterprise alterative. 

2011 Canary in the coal mine

Every term of government in the past 50 years, and before, has had at least one by-election take place as was the case between 2001-2005 and 2005-2009.  It’s worth noting that the election of the NDP’s Jagrup Brar in Surrey-Panorama (over Mary Polak) in a 2004 by-election increased the NDP caucus by 50%, from two to three and was arguably a sign that the NDP were on the comeback trail under new leader Carole James, which she proved in the 2005 campaign.  Notable about the 2008 Vancouver-Fairview by-election was the resignation not the vote.  First-time NDP MLA Gregor Robertson resigned to run for mayor, starting a ten-year run at City Hall, but also removed his green sheen from Carole James’s team prior to the 2009 campaign, which is remembered as an NDP fumble on climate change. 

The next real consequential by-election after the 1990s to take place was in Vancouver-Point Grey in 2011. When Christy Clark won the BC Liberal leadership, Gordon Campbell resigned his Pt. Grey seat, which he had held since 1996.  It was not a ‘gimme’ though BC Liberal support had always been pretty strong there.  Enter David Eby.  The activist lawyer was seen initially by some as being miscast for the riding, but the results show that he effectively mobilized NDP support among renters and environmentally-minded voters while the BC Liberal base – homeowners – was a diminishing percentage of the riding. 

It’s a tricky thing for a new leader coming from the outside to enter the Legislature – you need to find a dance partner.  In this case, the outgoing leader’s riding was the obvious place but it wasn’t a perfect fit.  Barely a month on the job as premier, Clark called the by-election for May 11th, 2011.  This was a very busy time for the Christy Clark government as it was trying to find its feet, while at the same time, hoping the by-election would take care of itself.  Meanwhile, David Eby was campaigning with laser focus.  As the results came in on May 11th, Clark trailed for much of the night, but a 635-vote cushion in the advance polls (counted last) gave her an overall win of only 564 votes.  This was a very close call and would have been a political disaster if Eby had won.  Yet she won and planned to represent the riding for a good long while.

The real consequence of the 2011 Point Grey by-election is not the close call, but what it represented.  BC Liberal support was draining out of the city.  A shift was taking place where urban voters were increasingly going NDP while rural voters were leaving the NDP to go BC Liberal.  In 2013, in the face of a dispiriting loss for the NDP province-wide, David Eby defeated Clark by over 1,000 votes in Point Grey.  The BC Liberals lost four seats in Vancouver and Capital Region combined, but made them up in the suburbs and rural BC that time.  By 2017, the urban shift would have deeper consequences for the BC Liberals.

2012 The Deferred Remaking of the Free Enterprise Coalition

In Christy Clark’s first year as premier, two of her MLAs resigned for greener pastures.  Iain Black vacated his Port Moody seat to head the Vancouver Board of Trade and Barry Penner gave leave of his Chilliwack-Hope seat to return to resume his legal career.  Neither by-election was particularly welcome as the BC Liberals knew they would be tough battles and divert much attention and resources.  Adrian Dix’s NDP salivated at the opportunity. 

As far as Port Moody goes, Dix shrewdly recruited former BC Liberal and Port Moody Mayor Joe Trasolini as the NDP candidate.  News of Trasolini’s candidacy added another two-hundred-pound sack on to the back of the struggling BC Liberals.  Meanwhile, in the ‘safe seat’ of Chilliwack-Hope, the BC Liberals recruited Laurie Throness, a former Chief of Staff to Chuck Strahl, a much-admired figure in the area.  Strahl really leaned into the campaign to support Clark and Throness, no small thing as the BC Liberals worked to fend off the rising BC Conservatives led by one of Strahl’s former colleagues, John Cummins. 

Throness did not have a very high profile in Chilliwack-Hope and did not bring a lot of volunteers, but he campaigned hard as one expects of a local candidate and benefited from Strahl’s backing.  He refused to ‘go negative’ on his key rival, BC Conservative candidate John Martin. The BC Liberal campaign, with its back against the wall, was trying everything and wanted to throw the kitchen sink at Martin.  The NDP’s Gwen O’Mahony would win the by-election with 42% of the vote, defying a natural law of BC politics – that NDPers could never win in the eastern Fraser Valley.  Throness and Martin split the vote with 32% and 25% respectively.  Over in Port Moody, Trasolini trampled the BC Liberal candidate Dennis Marsden (now an elected City Councillor in Coquitlam).  

The news was all bad but for two glimmers.  First, the BC Liberals finished ahead of the BC Conservatives in Chilliwack-Hope.  It could have been worse. Third place would have been very bad indeed.  Secondly, four days after the bruising by-elections, Alberta Premier Alison Redford made an improbable comeback, against the WildRose Party’s Danielle Smith of all people, to win a majority.  Redford had been given up for dead by the Holy Trinity of Pollsters, Pundits, and Political Scientists.  Her comeback made the idea of a Christy Clark comeback slightly more plausible. 

The real difference, though, is what happened later.  After the by-election in Chilliwack-Hope, Throness and Martin stayed in touch as they developed a respect for each other (recall that Throness wouldn’t go negative). As the BC Conservatives started to fall apart over the summer of 2012 (as third parties like to do), conversations started to take place about Martin coming over to the BC Liberals.  Incumbent MLA John Les provided a guiding hand.  When these whispers reached party HQ, a gift horse was not looked in the mouth. In September 2012, John Martin was announced as the candidate in Chilliwack, to succeed Les, and Throness would team up with him and run again in neighbouring Chilliwack-Hope. On switching parties mere months after the by-election, Martin, the master BBQ-er, quipped, “If anyone can make eating crow taste good, it’s me”.

John Martin made his move less than 6 months after the by-election

This event was a pivotal moment for the BC Liberals rebuilding the free enterprise coalition leading up to the 2013 general election.  Martin and Throness would both win their seats, Clark would win the province, and the BC Conservatives were pushed back to 5% and the sidelines ever more.  Over in Port Moody? Trasolini was a one-year wonder losing to BC Liberal candidate Linda Reimer. Over the longer-term, things didn’t work out as well for Martin and Throness, both losing to the NDP in 2020, who won in the eastern Fraser Valley for the first time ever in a general election. The party had considered allowing a nomination challenge to Martin but ultimately relented. Throness’s social conservative musings, which had not been much of a distraction under Clark’s leadership, burst into the general election campaign of 2020, disabling Andrew Wilkinson’s provincial campaign effort, and leading to him being removed as candidate.

2013 Back to the Cradle

Despite Christy Clark’s general election win in 2013, she lost her seat in Point Grey to David Eby.  She, again, had to find her way into the Legislature through a by-election.  

What might have seemed like a straightforward process, given her stunning election victory, was surprisingly tortured as it became clear that an ideal Lower Mainland seat was not going to present itself. 

One MLA who did understand the importance of securing a safe seat for the premier was Westside-Kelowna MLA Ben Stewart.   Clark accepted his offer to resign and entered the Legislature via a by-election from the ‘cradle of free enterprise’, forty years after Bill Bennett secured his seat there in 1973.

The consequence was the cementing of the Interior on the psyche of the government.  Not that that’s a bad thing, necessarily.  The Interior had rewarded the BC Liberals in the 2013 election with 18 of 24 seats.  Clark felt at home there, especially in Kelowna which had a tradition of strong support for free enterprise.  But the premier’s move up-country arguably contributed to the party drifting further away from the vote-rich urban areas.  It may have been only a few degrees of difference, but between 2013-2017, the government was losing ground in the Lower Mainland and would pay the price on Election Day. Had Clark taken a by-election seat in the Lower Mainland instead in 2013, would it have made a difference?  She lost power by the narrowest of margins, mainly on account of the party’s losses there.

As was the case when Dave Barrett ‘returned’ his seat to Bob Williams in 1984, Clark did the same for the honourable Stewart who returned to office in a 2018 by-election. 

2016 Making a Mark on Indigenous representation

While it did not have any bearing on general election results, the 2016 Vancouver-Mount Pleasant by-election was notable for sending the first First Nations woman, Melanie Mark, to the BC Legislature since the province came into existence 145 years before. The by-election was fait accompli as the NDP cruised to victory with over 60% of the vote. The real ‘race’ would have been the jockeying around the nomination once long-time MLA Jenny Kwan had decided to run federally the previous year. The NDP’s decision to go with Mark made history, and one year later, she was joined in the Legislature by two additional First Nations MLAs – Ellis Ross (BC Liberal) and Adam Olsen (Green). In the history of the BC Legislature, there have only been five First Nations MLAs, with Atlin MLAs Frank Calder, serving between 1949-1979 and Larry Guno (1986-1991) preceding Mark. Mark then became the first First Nations woman to serve in Cabinet. Her by-election competitors didn’t stop after losing to Mark. Green candidate Pete Fry went on to win handily as Councillor in the 2018 City of Vancouver election, while BC Liberal Gavin Dew threw his hat into the ring for the 2022 BC Liberal leadership race.

2016 by-election winner Melanie Mark with #3 Gavin Dew and #2 Pete Fry

2019 High Stakes and High Tide

It seemed unbelievable that an NDP MLA would resign his seat when the ‘GreenDP’ advantage in the Legislature was only 44-42.  Yet that’s exactly what Leonard Krog did in 2018 to run for mayor of Nanaimo.

Krog’s departure must have been a considerable headache for John Horgan’s government.  If they lost the by-election, the Legislature would be deadlocked 43-43 and the likely outcome would have been an early general election in 2019 and a potential ‘own goal’ of epic proportions.

Governments winning byelections is hard. Until Christy Clark won Point Grey in 2011, it had been 30 years since a governing party had won a by-election in BC. The BC Liberals lost three held-seats under Clark in by-elections so assuming the NDP would slam dunk Nanaimo defied history to some extent.

New BC Liberal leader Andrew Wilkinson was coming off a victorious referendum campaign where proportional representation was defeated.  He then recruited a strong local candidate in Nanaimo, Tony Harris, whose family is very well-known in the Harbour City.  Add to that that the Greens were putting up their own candidate, the daughter of the former pirate-mayor (yes), despite being in cahoots with the NDP on their confidence deal.

The NDP nominated federal MP Sheila Malcolmson who brought name recognition and local support.  It was all-in for the BC Liberals who saw the by-election for the opportunity that it was.  

Harris generated support and hope for the BC Liberals. On voting day, January 30, 2019, Harris delivered over 700 more votes than the previous candidate in the general election – this is rare.  By-elections usually have lower turnout.  Objectively, you might have expected to win it with that effort.

However, at some point in the campaign, it appeared the NDP went into a higher gear.  After all, Premier Horgan is an ‘Island guy’ and NDP roots run deep there (see history of Nanaimo riding). The Green vote collapsed from 20% in the general election to 7% in the by-election. The NDP held most of their raw vote and actually increased their percentage from 46.5% to 50%.  Harris increased the BC Liberal vote from 32.5% to 40% but that was little consolation.  Crisis averted for the NDP. 

Two weeks into the Nanaimo by-election was probably the high-water mark for Andrew Wilkinson’s leadership.  When the NDP won, the optimism that was felt (falsely or otherwise) dissipated and the BC Liberals went into a rut.  The mentality of forcing the NDP from office was replaced by settling in for a full-term of government.  They could never regain momentum, and were pummelled in Horgan’s early election call in 2020. Credit the NDP for staring down the existential crisis that the Nanaimo by-election posed and taking care of business. 

2022 Surrey South: Renewal or ?

Almost 50 years, and over 5,000 words later, we finally get to the 2022 Surrey South by-election.  Where will it stack up in terms of importance compared to a half-century of political tests?

BC Liberal leader Kevin Falcon has already taken care of one tidy bit of business, which was finding a seat after a nine-year absence from the Legislature.  Outgoing leader Andrew Wilkinson yielded Vancouver Quilchena, which was an easy lay-up for Falcon.  Gordon Campbell entered as leader via Quilchena almost 30 years earlier. 

With the resignation of BC Liberal Stephanie Cadieux, Falcon has an opportunity to bring forward new blood into the BC Liberals and is doing so with candidate Eleanore Sturko, an RCMP officer who is known for her work on LGBTQ and human rights issues.  The NDP has put forward Pauline Greaves, a community educator (Ph.D) who teaches business at Langara School of Management.  Greaves was a close runner-up to Cadieux in the 2020 general election, losing by a slim 4% margin. She’s playing the “I can be a strong voice inside government” card.

Surrey South is, in fact, the strongest of the nine ridings in Surrey – White Rock area for the BC Liberals. This should be a W.  In 2017, Cadieux took the riding by a margin of 18%.  In 2013, the BC Liberals won a majority of seats in the area before losing Panorama, Fleetwood, and Guildford in 2017 (key to the NDP taking power).  In 2020, the NDP advanced further taking former stronghold Cloverdale and narrowly losing in Surrey-White Rock to BC Liberal Trevor Halford, which would have seemed inconceivable prior to the campaign.  Cadieux and Halford were the last BC Liberals standing in the area until Cadieux resigned.  Falcon previously represented Cloverdale, next door, between 2001-2013 and was one of the top vote getters in the province for the BC Liberals.  This is political home turf for him and he and Sturko are backed by popular former mayor Dianne Watts. The BC Liberal path to power must travel through Surrey. 

The by-election will take place in an interregnum between Horgan’s announcement he is leaving and the installation of a new leader and premier, likely David Eby, on December 3rd. While Horgan remains popular in the Surrey area, especially with older folks, the real enemy for Falcon and Sturko is voter turnout.  By-election turnout is usually lower and a distracted and demotivated support base can lead to defeat.  It’s no consolation to hear afterward, “We thought you were going to win”.  In the final days of the by-election campaign, the BC Liberals have to grind away to get the vote out.

If Falcon’s BC Liberals prevail, they pass a test that they were expected to pass and get some new blood in the Legislature.  It will no doubt be a positive for them. 

For the NDP, a pick-up here would be very rare feat.  You have to go back to 1955 when Gordon Gibson Sr., MLA for Lillooet, put his Liberal seat on the line to back up his allegations of corruption under the Socred Forest Minister of the time, Robert Sommers.   Gibson lost to the governing Socreds in the by-election but he was proven right as Sommers was ultimately found guilty of corruption and went to the clink. (Gibson Sr. returned to the Legislature as a Liberal in the 1960s in a North Shore seat and his son, Gordon Gibson Jr., won a 1974 by-election in North Vancouver and contended the 1975 election as Liberal leader).

An NDP win in Surrey South would round out the Horgan era as a time where the NDP encroached deep into BC Liberal / free enterprise territory while keeping its left flank under control, and would be more about Horgan’s legacy than be a predictor of Eby’s future. Still, an NDP win here would obviously be good for them.

Another factor is the BC Conservatives who are running Richmond resident Harman Bhangu. There was no Conservative on the ballot in 2020 when Cadieux narrowly won.  Will Bhangu split the vote and cost Sturko? Earlier this month, Falcon punted Nechako Lakes MLA John Rustad from caucus over his team play and musings on climate change. Rustad has now appeared in support of Bhangu.  Will that make a difference? Could anyone in Surrey South pick Rustad out of a lineup? 

It’s hard to know right now where Surrey South will land on the scale of significance as harbinger of political events to come.  We usually don’t know until later. But there are stakes to be fought over and that will make it interesting on September 10th.

SEE post on Surrey South by-election result

  • A full list of BC by-elections can be found here.

A local take on the Burnaby South by-election

Guest Shot – by Adam Pankratz.  2015 Liberal candidate in Burnaby South.

Burnaby South has been in the news a lot lately. Burnaby? In the news? Not something we used to read very often, but Burnaby residents have gotten used to the spotlight lately. Whether it’s Kinder Morgan in the north, or Jagmeet Singh in the south, Burnaby’s ridings have been the focal points of several major news stories for 2018 and 2019.

Political observers are talking about how Jagmeet Singh will fare in his bid to gain a seat and become an MP as he deals with turmoil within the NDP. Win or lose Mr. Singh will face serious headwinds…but lose and he’s finished. Will the voters of Burnaby give him his victory and a chance to lead the NDP into the next general election in October?

Kinder Morgan – it’s the issue everyone wanted to talk about 6 months ago, and Jagmeet Singh opened his candidacy by attacking the “leaky pipeline.” I said then that Mr Singh missed the mark with Kinder Morgan, which is a minor issue in Burnaby, and not one that would decide the by-election here. The current situation in Burnaby, despite all the attention heaped on it through the summer and fall, is that no candidate is focused on Kinder Morgan. Burnaby residents are ultimately practical and realistic on Kinder Morgan, as are most Canadians. Responsible resources extraction is necessary for the Canadian economy and the residents here recognize that. It is a very loud minority who made it the issue it was.

What the candidates have all zeroed in on is the major issue in Burnaby of housing. It is the issue which sank Derek Corrigan, the four-term mayor of Burnaby, who lost to current mayor Mike Hurley last October.  Once again, the issue is front and centre. Like all the Lower Mainland, Burnaby is expensive and residents here want to see more action taken at all levels of government.

These issues are in many ways similar to the ones I came across doorknocking and speaking with residents during my 2015 federal election campaign. During that election there was also serious concern about the Harper Government and their impact on Canada’s image and sense of ourselves as a compassionate society. Canadians want a government that listens to them and understands their concerns and Burnaby residents are no different. That is why I always thought, and still do, that Mr Singh’s major challenge this by-election is gaining local credibility with Burnaby voters.

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Pankratz campaign: won Election Day, but could not overcome strong NDP machine delivering support to the advance poll.

Mr Singh clearly thinks Burnaby is an NDP slam dunk or he wouldn’t be here. History is on his side, but will Burnaby voters deliver what Mr Singh expects? “All Burnaby” ridings (that is, ridings entirely within Burnaby, not split over city boundaries) have gone NDP for over 40 years. Mr. Singh and the NDP clearly are hoping for a repeat of the voting pattern in October.

There is, however danger in this. Burnaby is changing and the 2015 general election proved that. In that election Burnaby North Seymour went Liberal and in Burnaby South the incumbent Kennedy Stewart narrowly hung on to best me by 547 votes. But the larger gamble the NDP and Mr Singh are taking is assuming that Burnaby residents are the same as they were 40 years go (they aren’t) and thinking they will readily accept a candidate who parachuted in, with no community connections.

I believe Burnaby residents want an MP who knows the community and understand them. I remember distinctly that the most common response to our team in 2015, an election in which we doorknocked for over a year prior to Election Day, was “No one has knocked on my door since Svend was our MP.” “Svend” is, of course, Svend Robinson, who served Burnaby for 25 years as MP. Like him or hate him, Svend was someone who understood Burnaby, worked tirelessly to be present locally as an MP and develop personal relationships with his constituents. Svend’s rival at the time, Bill Cunningham (Liberal) and successor (Bill Siksay) also had deep, long standing relationships with Burnaby. Burnaby misses this. It is no doubt one of the key reasons our election campaign did so well in 2015, despite the entrenched NDP history. Local wins here. The fact that recent NDP representative Kennedy Stewart resigned as MP and immediately began touting that he was from Vancouver and always wanted the job of Vancouver Mayor has only deepened the desire of Burnaby residents for a long-term MP intent on local priorities and issues.

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Svend: Knocker of Doors, also now on Twitter (photo: CBC)

What can we expect of this by-election?  At the outset my opinion, bluntly put, was that Jagmeet Singh should have lost Burnaby South decisively. However, current events have conspired to make that loss seem unlikely.

Due to the close race in 2015, the story everyone (sensibly) made was that this would be a tight race between the Liberals and the NDP. However, the former Liberal candidate, Karen Wang, was forced to resign due to comments she made on WeChat regarding Mr Singh. This botched campaign start, followed by the scramble to replace her has hurt Liberal credibility locally. Now, the national Liberal scene is being shaken by the SNC-Lavalin affair. Does this mean the Liberals are cooked in Burnaby South? No, but they have made their lives significantly more difficult than it ought to have been.

One party not being talked about at all is the Conservatives in Burnaby. They have flown under the radar in this by-election despite strong results in 2011 (40%) and even 2015 (27%), given the circumstances. In my mind they were a dark horse contender until the People’s Party of Canada was founded. This long shot is now essentially non-existent.

The PPC is running an ostensibly strong candidate in former local school trustee candidate from 2018 Laura-Lynn Tyler Thompson. Ms Thompson has been controversial for her anti-SOGI comments and stance on similar issues, yet still received over 15,000 votes in the 2018 municipal election. While campaign signs don’t mean anything at the ballot box, it’s hard not to notice the disproportionately high amount of PPC signs around Burnaby, given the party is supposed to almost be a fringe joke nationally. If Ms Thompson can rally her supporters from 2018, I would watch for the PPC to seriously surprise people and perhaps even see Burnaby South legitimize the PPC as a minor party.

Jagmeet Singh meanwhile continues to be at best an unknown, enigmatic figure for most Burnaby residents. He talks in bland platitudes, doesn’t have a clear stance on anything and equivocates when asked direct questions. At his first press conference he claimed to be “All in on Burnaby.” He isn’t. His strategy seems to be “Burnaby will vote NDP no matter what.” Past that, it’s hard to see any notable impact he has made on the community or its residents.

In the end, despite his lack of connection to the riding and lack of understanding as to what makes Burnaby tick, I foresee Mr Singh and the NDP pulling this one out on the basis of history. The Liberals did themselves no favours in the run up to or first half of the by-election and simply have too much ground to make up. The Conservatives will be split by the PPC and fade away.

So the surprise is that the Liberals and Conservatives do not look like they can take advantage of a weak NDP leader with no connection to Burnaby, while the upstart PPC might have a boost that puts fuel in its tank.  Politics is always interesting in BC.

By-election primer: a stroll through 150 years of Nanaimo politics

Premiers. Coal barons and coal disasters. Firebrands.  Death.  Champions of the working class.  Champions of Women’s Suffrage. Party leaders. Cabinet veterans. Speakers. Underdogs.  Coalition Makers.  Scandal.  Crushed Grapes. “The Greatest Canadian”. A pirate.  A less than sober coronation.  As we look toward Nanaimo’s January 30thbyelection, I graze through the history of one of BC’s most intriguing ridings.

How Victoria was Crowned by Nanaimo

When former Vancouver Province ace reporter and award-winning author Don Hauka steps out his front door in the Royal City and gazes south, he likely has trouble mustering kind thoughts about one of Nanaimo’s earliest representatives who influenced the course of history, while under the influence.

Hauka lives on 5thStreet in New Westminster.  The street is much wider than other streets because it was to be the boulevard leading up to the provincial legislature that was supposed to be built there when the colonies of Vancouver Island and British Columbia united in 1866.

Captain William Hales Franklyn, representative from Nanaimo, was a former ship’s captain who wound up in the Harbour City after having thrown one of his passengers into irons. He favoured New Westminster as the capital of the newly unified colony.  Victoria was regarded by Nanaimoites as its “cruel stepmother”.   According to

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Franklyn: Quite a spectacle

famed BC historian Margaret Ormsby, he intended to make a strong statement in favour of the mainland capital, but on the day of the debate, he was a “little shaky” owing to some refreshments consumed. His seatmate, Victoria supporter William George Cox, seized on the opportunity.  The ship’s captain rose reading from his prepared text comparing New Westminster on the Fraser River to Calcutta on the Hoogley River, arguing that New Westminster would enjoy Calcutta’s prosperity.  However, as he finished the first page, Cox shuffled the papers to put page one back at the top, which Franklyn re-read, repeating his parallel to Calcutta.  This happened a third time and hilarity and mayhem ensued.  In the meantime, Franklyn had put his spectacles on the table whereupon Cox removed the lenses from their frame so that Franklyn “could not see the Hoogley or anything else”.  The House was in an uproar as the hapless Franklyn twisted in the wind.  Speaker John Helmcken, a firm supporter of Victoria’s bid, moved a recess then, when the House reassembled, he ruled that Franklyn could not make a second speech.  Victoria went on to win the vote 13-8 and the rest is history.  Franklyn was removed from his post not long after by a disappointed Governor Seymour who favoured New Westminster.  And 150 years later, Don Hauka is not prepared to forgive Franklyn’s bumbling nor Victoria’s treachery.

Sheesh, all that before Confederation.  What about the next 150 years?

With the Nanaimo byelection taking place January 30th, it caused me to reflect on Nanaimo’s history in provincial politics.  The following is a glimpse – a few stories and a little colour.  I am not pretending to be an expert when it comes to Nanaimo’s history, but I lived in the area for over 15 years and certainly find it interesting. I encourage comments to add insight and missing facts, especially where I have missed the mark.  There are few riding histories that I’m aware of that connect modern-day politics to BC’s beginnings as a province.  Nanaimo is a good place to start.  Political junkies, enjoy.

(A quick note on ridings. The names have bounced around over the years.  There has always been at least one core Nanaimo riding and sometimes two or three that represent the area. The name ‘Newcastle’ was used for many decades in riding names and is tied to Newcastle Island in Nanaimo, which in turn drew its name from the heart of coal mining in the UK.  For this post, I relied heavily on the Electoral History of British Columbia 1871-1986 and refer to other sources throughout the post)

A future Premier elected right off the bat

In the first election as a province, Nanaimo elected a premier.  He wasn’t the premier then and there, but John Robson would ultimately become premier of BC and have its highest peak and one of its most famous streets bear his name.

Robson was a lively force.  A newspaper editor, he was cited by contempt by Chief Justice Matthew Baillie Begbie, and was a burr under the saddle of Governor Douglas.  He moved his newspaper from New Westminster to Victoria and sold it to the rival Daily British Colonist (precursor of today’s Times-Colonist). He was a strong supporter of BC joining Confederation, and when BC joined in 1871, he ran and won in Nanaimo with 57 votes to his opponent’s 33.  He only served one-term representing Nanaimo but he went on to an important career in provincial politics representing other areas, ultimately assuming the premiership in 1889.  He died in office, in 1892, when he hurt his finger in the door of a carriage during a visit to London and succumbed to blood poisoning.

Robson was one of two premiers who represented Nanaimo during their career.

Democracy and the Dunsmuirs

Nanaimo before and after Confederation was a coal town. There are many good books and sources about Nanaimo’s coal history, especially by author Jan Peterson, who has written six local histories. In fact, I would defer completely to Peterson on any historical points.

An excerpt from a column in the Times-Colonist by Peterson describes the origins of coal in Nanaimo:

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Coal Tyee: He brought coal to the attention of the HBC (BC Archives)

A chance encounter between Snuneymuxw Chief Che-wich-i-kan [or Ki-et-sa-kun] and a blacksmith in Victoria set the wheels of development in Nanaimo in place. Che-wich-i-kan, historically referred to as “Coal Tyee,” had gone to Victoria to have his gun repaired. He commented about black stones being plentiful in his area. This conversation was repeated to HBC authorities, who then invited the chief to bring some of his black stones to Victoria. In return, he would get a bottle of rum and have his gun repaired free. The date was December 1849. The following spring, Coal Tyee returned with a canoe laden with coal. A company clerk, Joseph William McKay, was quickly dispatched to Nanaimo.

The Snuneymuxw negotiated a treaty with the Crown in 1854.  According to the Snuneymuxw First Nation website, “In order to access the coal, the Colonial authorities knew that under British Common Law, and as a matter of practical reality, they had to conclude a Treaty with the Indigenous owners of the land, which in coal-rich Nanaimo were the Snuneymuxw. The goal of treaty-making was to achieve, through recognition and respect of Snuneymuxw, access to the coal deposits.” (A few years ago, Vancouver Island University created the Centre for Pre-Confederation Treaties and Reconciliation to further explore issues related to the 1854 treaty).

From there, Nanaimo became a coal town with the Hudson Bay Company benefiting, along with the companies that followed.  Today, underneath Nanaimo there are coal tunnels and shafts in every direction, remnants of the Age of Island Coal.

Another local book, When Coal was King, by VIU professor John Hinde, outlines the rise of the Dunsmuirs.  Robert Dunsmuir and his wife emigrated to Vancouver Island from Scotland in 1850 as an indentured miner for the HBC.  The voyage to the west coast Screen Shot 2019-01-16 at 10.41.08 PM.pngtook months and numerous members of the crew deserted to take part in the California Gold Rush.  Thus, son James was born at Fort Vancouver on the Columbia in 1851.  Dunsmuir’s uncle worked for the HBC in Nanaimo and there he went.  When his uncle’s contract expired, he tried to convince Robert and his family to return to Scotland.  They decided against it and stuck it out in Nanaimo.

He laboured for almost twenty years, prosperous but not extravagant.  He discovered the Wellington seam in 1869 and formed his own venture, beginning production at new pits at Wellington in the Nanaimo area, in 1871. By the 1880s, Dunsmuir was dominating the coal industry on Vancouver Island at a time when coal was the world’s dominant fuel. On August 13, 1886, John A. MacDonald drove in the Last Spike of the E&N Railroad at Shawnigan Lake, built by Dunsmuir, which Hinde calls “the deal of the century”.   The railroad was the subject of considerable political controversy, which Dunsmuir shrewdly exploited.  Vancouver Island today in many ways remains the architecture of the Dunsmuirs.

Historian Jean Barman writes, “The Dunsmuirs’ total concern with profit extended to their treatment of employees.  The accommodation rented to workers was primitive, lacking even running water… Death and injury were commonplace because of company negligence”.  The Dunsmuirs’ approach of hiring cheaper labour and working conditions led to confrontation, which was dealt with ruthlessly.

Dunsmuir had a rags to riches story and his riches were astonishing for that time. Dunsmuir would move to Victoria and build Craigdarroch Castle as his residence.  Though his political base and wealth derived from the coal pits of Nanaimo, his influence went much further beyond.

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Craigdarroch: What would Robert Dunsmuir have thought of spec taxes?

One of his key managers, and son-in-law, John Bryden was elected to succeed Robson in 1875. Bryden resigned due to business pressures the next year, but would return to elected office in 1894 and 1898.  He was a Dunsmuir man and strongly advocated for the coal industry.    A summation of his political career is found in the Dictionary of Canadian Biography:

His electioneering statements and legislative voting record indicate that he was in favour of economic development, an advocate of temperance, opposed to gambling, unwilling to extend the franchise to women, and above all a rigid supporter of the right of employers to hire Chinese labourers. Although he received public criticism for his support of capital in general and the Dunsmuir empire in particular, Bryden seems to have been well respected by his election opponents.

In his capacity as shareholder, he launched a successful constitutional court action that allowed the Dunsmuir empire to continue hiring Chinese labour, which were paid much lower wages.  This was one of many issues that sparked labour revolts.

Robert Dunsmuir himself was elected in 1882 along with William Raybould when the seat carried two members.   Dunsmuir immediately joined the Cabinet of Premier Alexander E.B. Davie.  There were no conflict-of-interest laws in those days.  Dunsmuir’s business interests continued unabated, as did his political power, though sons James and Alexander took on more responsibilities with the business and it thrived.

In the 1888 session, Dunsmuir was accused of favouring BC’s annexation to the United States.  MLA T.B. Humphreys (Lillooet) went as far as moving a motion of censure.  The matter was deflected to a select standing committee, which exonerated Dunsmuir.

Dunsmuir’s political success left Nanaimo mineworkers and labour activists “dejected”, writes Ormsby, which is understandable.  The polarization between the richest man in British Columbia, and his organization, versus mineworkers marching toward increasingly radical politics, was growing. It would manifest itself in terms of strikes, riots, and arrests for many years, but it would soon show itself at the ballot box.

However, Robert Dunsmuir would never taste defeat.  He died in 1889.  In fact, Raybould also died during the same term of office, probably the only time in BC history that both members (of a two-member riding) died.

It would be a short wait before Labour forces made their mark at the ballot box. And it wasn’t the end of the Dunsmuirs in politics either.

Nanaimo: the origins of BC’s Labour politics

Remembering that party politics were not formalized in BC until the election of 1903, there were basically three types of candidates – those who supported the Government, the Opposition, or Labour.

The first Labour MLAs elected to the BC Legislature were elected from Nanaimo in 1890.  Thomas Forster won Nanaimo in a tight three-way race 160-157-154.  Thomas Keith was acclaimed in the adjacent Nanaimo City riding.  The Electoral History of British Columbia (1871-1986) states:

Forster and Keith were both nominated by the Miners’ and Mine Labourers’ Protective Association (MMLPA) and campaigned on the “Workingmen’s Platform” of the Workingmen’s Campaign Committee (Nanaimo Free Press, 19, 28, and 31 May 1890).

In 1894, Labour candidates had a setback.  With three Nanaimo area ridings in the 33-seat Legislature – North Nanaimo, South Nanaimo, and Nanaimo City – all three Labour candidates were shut out. This election marked the return of Dunsmuir’s son-in-law John Bryden to elected office, and also saw the election of William Walkem, a physician who had narrowly lost in 1890.  Walkem’s brother, George, had served as BC premier from 1878-1882.

While Bryden was returned in 1898, Walkem was defeated handily in South Nanaimo by Ralph Smith, a Labour-Oppositionist candidate, which meant he had the backing of Labour and those that also opposed the government.  Smith had run in 1894 but had lost to Bryden.

The election of Bryden at the same time as the election of Labour MLAs demonstrates the support that each side of the management-labour divide had in the City overall – a divide that has ebbed and flowed over Nanaimo’s history.  Of course, when looking at early voting results, it’s important to be mindful that the electoral franchise was very limited during those days.  These early results are completely absent of female participation, among other restrictions.

Ralph Smith’s story is an interesting one. He was a coal miner from Newcastle who

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Mary Ellen Smith: her family’s political career started in Nanaimo

emigrated to Nanaimo in 1891.  His victory in 1898 in Nanaimo was followed by a massive win in 1900. Shortly after that election, he decided to seek federal office in 1901
and would ultimately serve as a Liberal MP. He returned to provincial politics in 1916, from a Vancouver riding, and served as Minister of Finance under Premier Harlan Brewster, but he died in office.  Prior to his death, a provincial referendum resulted in 65% (of men) voting to extend the vote to women.

His wife, Mary Ellen Smith, ran in his vacant seat and became BC’s first MLA and first female cabinet minister in the British Commonwealth.

But back in Nanaimo in 1901, Smith’s departure opened the door for one of the most significant politicians in British Columbia – James J. Hawthornthwaite.  Elected as one of the first Labour-backed MLAs in BC history, he would co-found the Socialist Party of British Columbia.

He came to BC in the late 1880s and found his way to Nanaimo to work as a real estate agent for the New Vancouver Coal Mining and Land Co. Ltd.  Its owner, Samuel Robins, was a bitter rival of the Dunsmuirs.  Hawthornthwaite was influenced by Ralph Smith, who was then secretary of the Miners’ and Mine Laborers Protective Association, and would marry the daughter of Mark Bate, Nanaimo’s first mayor who served 16 terms between 1875 and 1900.  Bate is the focus of one Jan Peterson’s local histories.

Hawthornthwaite was elected as a Socialist, along with neighbouring MLA Parker Williams. The two of them enjoyed electoral success between 1903 and 1912.

Hawthornthwaite was the “socialist intellectual”, says historian Allen Seager. His politics would diverge with his former ally Ralph Smith but “his approach did not alienate him from the mining population; his speeches earned him great applause at public meetings”, writes Hinde.  Williams, on the other hand, was a Welsh miner and trade unionist.  He made his way west finally settling in Cedar.  While Hawthornthwaite focused on Socialist theory, Williams “concentrated on wages, safety, and the right to organize”. Hinde writes that William was “unpolished and crumpled”; one local writer declared, “No amount of grooming and combing would transform Parker Williams into Beau Brummell”.

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An interesting source on BC’s radical roots

In the 1903 election, the first that political parties contested in British Columbia, the Socialists were centre stage.  The Conservatives led by the youthful Richard McBride held 22 of the 42 seats, the Liberals 17.  The two Nanaimo Socialists held two seats, along with other independent Labour allies in the Legislature, which gave them an important role with a government that had a thin majority.

Author John Hinde describes Hawthornthwaite and Williams as “evolutionary” rather than “revolutionary” Socialists.  Hinde continues, “The main weapon in the Socialists arsenal was the ballot, the ‘Gatling gun of political power’”.

Hawthornthwaite’s bio in the Dictionary of Canadian Biography supports this view of evolutionary change:

Hawthornthwaite’s contributions were far more constructive than revolutionary and had included rudimentary farm security legislation in 1901 and a workmen’s compensation act in 1902. When Conservative premier Richard McBride* took office in June 1903, he had only a small majority so he turned to Hawthornthwaite for support. Thus, Hawthornthwaite was able to push for additional legislation, including improved safety standards and labour reforms in the mining industry. The premier used members of the socialist caucus to sound out the opinion of the popular class on a narrow range of issues. In return, Hawthornthwaite and his associates eschewed detailed criticism of McBride’s policies of development. There were limits to such arrangements. For example, McBride allowed members of the socialist caucus to lead the fight for women’s suffrage, but applied no party discipline to bring it about, though he personally supported enfranchisement of women as part of his “white B.C.” policy. In addition, administration of labour legislation sometimes made a mockery of the reforms enacted during McBride’s premiership. Hawthornthwaite’s correspondence shows that the enforcement by government officials of different parts of the Coal Mines Regulation Act depended on his persistent efforts and those of other elected officials. Nevertheless, and although accumulated grievances in the Vancouver Island coalfield would later boil over into violent confrontation, for a time the socialist alternative of a “strike at the ballot box,” the slogan of the socialist Western Clarion(Vancouver), had unexampled success.

In 1907, McBride won 26 seats, a stronger majority, though the Socialists ran 20 candidates and elected three, including the two Nanaimo MLAs.  Hawthornthwaite would resign his seat in 1908 to contest the federal election in opposition to Ralph Smith, who was running with Wilfred Laurier’s Liberals.  Smith won, but Hawthornthwaite won back his provincial seat in the subsequent byelection.

In 1909, McBride dominated with 38 of 42 seats.  But yet again, Hawthornthwaite and Williams prevailed, holding between them as many seats as the decimated Liberals.

Then in 1912, McBride did it again.  He won 39 of 42 seats.  The Socialists held two seats in Nanaimo, Parker Williams, but this time, it was John Place not Hawthornthwaite that was Williams’ seatmate.  As a sidenote, the Nanaimo MLAs split from the Socialist Party of Canada at this time, and moved to a different banner – the Social Democratic Party.  Hawthornthwaite moved on to other business interests, which drew criticism from some Socialists, and he also had a close friendship with McBride.

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Parker Williams (Vancouver Sun)

Williams had a different style than Hawthornthwaite.  A Vancouver Sun profile in 2017 included some vignettes from his political career:

Following a bitter coal miners’ strike on the Island between 1912 and 1914, he not only went after the Conservative premier, Richard McBride, and Attorney General William Bowser, he went after their parliamentary colleagues for toeing the government line. “What do you expect from 40 spineless shrimps of the 5-, 10- and 15-cent politicians who sit in the House and do the bidding of McBride and Bowser?” thundered Williams. “They care not what happens to the people so long as the party machine works well.”

One of his finest moments came in January 1914, when he shamed the government over the death of a young man who had been sentenced to a year in prison over a protest during the coal strike. Badly treated in prison, the boy fell ill, but his parents weren’t notified until after he died. “I ask for the stunned mother and father no sympathy from this House,” said Williams, his voice choking with emotion. “They will carry their agony to their grave. But this I shall say: that the root of all this sorrow and this suffering will be found in the incompetency, inadequacy, callous and domineering methods of the government in handling this situation from the beginning.”

World War I intervened and the politics of British Columbia would change. In the 1916 election, William Sloan of the Liberals gained a Nanaimo seat while Williams was re-elected in Newcastle.  The miners vote was beginning to be diluted by demographic change. Williams would resign a year later to take a provincial appointment and who ran to replace him?  Hawthornthwaite stepped back in.  This would be his last term.  It was said that he had been stirred politically by the Bolsheviks and may have met Lenin in his travels.

In Politicians of a Pioneering Province, former Vancouver Province reporter Russell Walker described Hawthornthwaite:

At times we had the pleasure of reporting genuine orators. One such was James H. Hawthornthwaite, Socialist, Cowichan-Newcastle… When [he] rose to speak there was invariably marked attention on all sides.  He spoke almost with a bite to his words, sometimes with a harsh, choppy delivery, no doubt for emphasis. But smooth sentences flowed like lube oil under pressure, and if the Socialist member for Cowichan-Newcastle had been enunciating Liberal party policies, Premier Oliver could have called a general election any time and been sure of a majority.

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In 1920, in the riding of Cowichan-Newcastle, Hawthornthwaite would be defeated by Federated Labour Party candidate Sam Guthrie, thus ending his political career.

Sam Guthrie was just getting started.  The Scottish miner was a union leader during the Great Strike of 1913 in Ladysmith.  Ladysmith was a coal mining town, directly linked to the mines at Extension, near Nanaimo.  While there was no loss of life during the strike, there were assaults, lootings, and property damage.  Fifty men were sentenced to prison, including Guthrie who received a two-year ticket to Oakalla, but was feted as a labour martyr upon his return.  Guthrie’s true labour credentials bested Hawthornthwaite in 1920, but Guthrie lost in 1924 to a Conservative.  He returned to the Legislature as a CCF MLA from 1937-1949.  The local NDP club in the Ladysmith area was called the Sam Guthrie Club for many years.  (A news clipping from 1974 outlined the Club’s activities, but in a related item, apropos of nothing, the Ladysmith Chronicle reports on Leonard Krog having his new hubcaps stolen and replaced with old hub caps.  Some might claim the parallel to missing his cabinet post in 2017 and having it replaced with caucus chair. )

The rise of Labour politics in Nanaimo is discussed extensively in this article by Allan Seager.

Back to the Dunsmuirs

With all this talk of Socialists, we must take a moment to return to the election of the second Premier of BC who represented Nanaimo, James Dunsmuir, son of Robert Dunsmuir and heir.  Unlike Robson, he was premier while representing Nanaimo. He would also serve as the Province’s Lieutenant-Governor.

Wikipedia summarizes it well enough:

Dunsmuir entered provincial politics in 1898, winning a seat in the provincial legislature, and he became the 14th Premier in 1900. His government attempted to resist popular pressure to curtail Asian labour and immigration, not for humanitarian reasons, but to ensure a cheap labour pool for business. It also promoted railway construction and accomplished a redistribution of seats to better represent population distribution in the province.

Dunsmuir visited England and the United States in 1902,  but disliked politics after his return and resigned as Premier in November 1902. In 1906, he became the province’s eighth Lieutenant Governor. He retired in 1909 and lived out his remaining years at the baronial mansion that he had constructed at Hatley Park.

In fact, Dunsmuir’s first win was in Comox in 1898, another coal producing area.  He contested South Nanaimo riding in 1900 and won by a mere 24 votes (249-225) over the Labour candidate, reflecting the divide in the community. It also represented the fact that the Dunsmuirs did have support to counter opposition from mine workers and rival mining interests.  He went from there to the Premier’s chair in the final term of the BC Legislature before party politics took hold in 1903.

Says Dr. S.W. Jackman in Portraits of Premiers, James Dunsmuir became Premier “more or less by default”.  Premier ‘Fighting’ Joe Martin had the largest faction following the 1900 election, but could not command a majority.  The Opposition leader, Charles Semlin, had lost his seat.  Jackman writes, “Dunsmuir had gone into politics somewhat

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James Dunsmuir: the reluctant, but very rich, Premier from Nanaimo

reluctantly, was one of the few candidates who might possibly become Premier with any sense of real honour and dignity… He was certainly no politician – in public his manner was somewhat cold, and rather reserved.”  He took office on June 16, 1900. His administration was not especially noteworthy and he did not particularly enjoy his duties.  His secretary, R. Edward Gosnell observed, “The fates threw him into prominence which, by choice, he would have avoided.  He had neither a liking nor an adaptability for public life…”.  Jackman opines that Dunsmuir “ought never to have been a Premier at all; he did not like the job for he was totally out of his element, he hid not understand politicians and he never properly grasped the methodology of legislative government.  In a way, he was a typical example of … the rich tycoon”.  He resigned in 1902 following a triumphant trip to King Edward VIII’s coronation where he and his wealth were embraced in high circles. He would be appointed Lieutenant-Governor in 1906 and serve to 1909.

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Hatley Castle (Royal Roads): The house that James Dunsmuir built

I should note, given that I lived in the area for 15 years, that James Dunsmuir founded and named Ladysmith.  The town was laid out in grid format to be a bedroom community for miners, who would commute to the nearby Extension mines by rail.  The coal was shipped out via Transfer Beach in Ladysmith Harbour. During the time that the town was being built, the British won a key battle in the Boer War – the Battle of Ladysmith.  In a fit of patriotism, Dunsmuir declared, “I shall call this place Ladysmith!” (I’m imagining that part).  In any event, the streets of Ladysmith bear the names of Boer War generals like Baden-Powell, Methuen, and Roberts, for a battle taking place in faraway South Africa. It hearkens back to a time of unquestioning support of the Crown and Mother England.

 The era of the Liberals in Nanaimo: 1916-1952

Nanaimo has always been a left-wing, workers’ paradise!

There’s a hiccup in that narrative.  While we have extensively covered the coal-dusted ground upon which Socialist-Labour pioneers like Hawthornthwaite, Williams, Place, and others trod, there was an extensive period where the Liberals triumphed.

Two MLAs dominated Nanaimo politics during that time: William Sloan and George Pearson. Sloan had been a Liberal MP in Comox-Atlin (Comox-Atlin, what a riding!) from 1904-1909, stepping aside to make way for another candidate.  He resurfaced politically in the 1916 election in Nanaimo.  He was a minister of mines, fisheries, and provincial secretary for Liberal governments that served during the entirety of his provincial career.  He died in 1928.  His son, Gordon Sloan, would serve as the province’s Attorney-General under Premier Duff Pattullo and lead Royal Commissions on forestry in later years.

Succeeding Sloan was George Pearson, who represented Nanaimo from 1928 to 1952. Pearson won six consecutive times.  The first win was in an election where his Liberals were hammered. After 12 years in power, it was time for a change, and Simon Fraser Tolmie’s Conservatives took the reins.  Pearson and the Liberals would return to power in 1933.  The George Pearson Hospital in Vancouver was named for him as was the Pearson Bridge in Nanaimo.  He served as Minister of Labour and was particularly adamant in his support for the internment of the Japanese population following the attacks on Pearl Harbour.

According to Margaret Ormsby, George Pearson played a key role ending the Liberal government of Duff Pattullo, and the formation of the Coalition government that ruled from 1941 to 1952.  The day after the 1941 election, which was a minority Liberal government (21 Liberal, 14 CCF, 12 Conservative, 1 Independent), Pearson “argued that the Premier no longer controlled a majority of members in the House”.  Shortly thereafter, the leader of the Conservatives, Pat Maitland, called for a coalition government, which he said should include the CCF.  CCF leader Harold Winch, now Opposition Leader, rejected the idea.

Pattullo called a cabinet meeting with his post-election cabinet, but Pearson refused his offer to make him Minister of Education and Provincial Secretary, indicating that he felt there should be “an arrangement” with the opposition parties to form a stable government.  Then Finance Minister John Hart said he favoured a coalition.  As events unfolded, the Liberals announced a convention. A resolution hit the floor proposing the creation of a coalition government, which was carried decisively. Pattullo rose and left the hall. Pearson “worked his way to the front of the room” and nominated John Hart.  Pattullo resigned as premier and Hart formed a coalition government, with Nanaimo’s Pearson at the centre of the action.

While Sloan and Pearson were triumphing during this 36 year stretch in the Nanaimo riding, the Cowichan-Newcastle riding to the south had a different tradition. As mentioned, Sam Guthrie represented the riding from 1920-1924 then as a CCF MLA from 1937-1949.  Guthrie lost to Conservatives in 1924 and 1928, and in 1933, lost to an Independent Conservative, Hugh Savage.  This is a footnote of history as Savage was backed by an organization called the OGM or Oxford Group Movement, noted in BC’s Electoral History 1871-1986.   Guthrie’s final campaign was also in 1949, losing not by a whisker, but to Andrew Whisker, a Coalition candidate.  By my count, Guthrie made it to the ballot 8 times, winning half the time.

During this time of Liberal wins in Nanaimo, it seems strange that the fledgling CCF did not gain a foothold in the city that spawned Socialist MLAs during the Conservative floodwaters of the McBride era.  The CCF’s first contested election was 1933 and it served as BC’s Official Opposition between 1933-1937, and from 1941-1952 during the Coalition years.  Yet, the CCF could not win in Nanaimo.  Even a young accountant named Dave Stupich could not pull it off in 1949, losing to George Pearson.  It turns out the ‘NDP town’ was never a ‘CCF town’.  Not at all.

We wuz robbed !

Given the ProRep referendum, you can wonder why anyone from the NDP would support electoral reform when you look at the sad tale of 1952.

Quick history lesson: Coalition government rigs the rules thinking that by giving voters a second and third choice, this will be good for Liberals and Conservatives, who were back to contesting elections under their own labels in 1952.  You see, they wanted to gang up and stop Harold Winch’s CCF at any cost.  Then, along came the Socreds.

When the first preference votes were counted in the 1952 election, Winch’s CCF led in 21 seats to the Social Credit’s 14, in the 48 seats Legislature.  A clear win.  The Social Credit had never fully contested a BC election before.  The Liberals and Conservatives were eclipsed by populist alternatives. However, this time, the election wasn’t over at the first count.  In Nanaimo and the Islands, as it was then called, Stupich held a 369 vote lead over Progressive Conservative Dr. Larry Giovando.  However, when the Liberal was dropped from the ballot, Stupich’s lead melted away and Giovando won by a margin of 5,144 to 4,581.

Not only did this delay Stupich’s political career, it had an enormous impact on BC. This was one of three seats that slipped away from the CCF while the Social Credit gained five seats through successive counts.  The final count was 19 Social Credit, 18 CCF, with the rest split between the Liberals, Conservatives, and an Independent Labour MLA (who was not partial to joining with the CCF).  Paddy Sherman’s Bennett describes the machinations that followed.  The Socreds did not even have a leader during the 1952 election.  W.A.C. Bennett was elected leader by a vote of the new caucus afterward.  Bennett then jousted with the Lieutenant-Governor and gained power, against the strenuous objections of CCF leader Harold Winch.   I wrote this all up in a previous blog post: “History tells us, be careful what you wish for”.

But for one seat, the CCF would have likely been invited to govern, especially when they had won the popular vote by a significant margin.

Then in 1953, it happened again to Stupich!

Stupich had a big lead on the first count, with Socred Earle Westwood second, and Giovando third.  Clearly the Liberal voters preferred Giovando to Stupich because he vaulted to second and then edged Stupich by 18 votes on the final count.  Robbed again!

The Socreds won a majority in the Legislature this time.  The Progressive Conservatives were reduced to one seat – Giovando.

You have to think Stupich was quite delighted to see W.A.C. Bennett scrap the preferential balloting system and go back to first-past-the-post.

Dr. Larry Giovando was a well-respected physician in Nanaimo.  In the Legislature, he doubtlessly had a lonely time as the sole Progressive Conservative.  He assailed W.A.C. over “fancy bookkeeping”, though Sherman notes that Giovando would leave the PC’s “in a huff”.

1952 also saw the election in Cowichan-Newcastle of Robert (Bob) Strachan. He held the seat, and variations of it, until 1975.   He was the longest serving Opposition leader in BC history (1956-1969).  He left politics in 1975 for an appointment as BC’s Agent-General in London.  Like many trade unionists, he had emigrated from Scotland and found his way to resource communities in BC, where he would rise to be a union leader.  He had a long tenure in Opposition, where he endured four straight general election defeats.  He was the basketball equivalent of the Washington Generals to W.A.C’s Harlem Globetrotters.  But Strachan hung in there for a term in government under Premier Dave Barrett, and was Minister responsible for the creation of ICBC.

Now that first-past-the-post was back in play, it should have been time for the CCF to prevail in Nanaimo.  After all, they were winning elsewhere on the Island.  It turns out that Nanaimo continued to be a free enterprise paradise.  Social Credit’s Earle Westwood, who lost in 1953, prevailed over Stupich in 1956 and 1960.  These marked Stupich’s fourth and fifth losses to start out his political career. In 1960, the CCF won 16 seats in BC but they could not crack Nanaimo.  In that campaign, Nanaimo lawyer Ted Strongitharm ran for the Progressive Conservatives.  His son, Bruce, was a longtime Chief of Staff to the BC Forests minister, and showed me the campaign brochure where his Dad promised to build a pedestrian bridge to Newcastle Island.  Now, there’s an idea!  Strongitharm would mentor a young lawyer at his law firm – Leonard Krog.

During the 1950s and the 1960s, the Liberals and the Progressive Conservatives tried to revive their fortunes.  How long could this Social Credit Party last, anyways, before people returned to the old brands?  The Progressive Conservative leader for three of those elections, Deane Finlayson, was from Nanaimo, though he didn’t contest seats there.  Finlayson was a 33-year old Nanaimo insurance agent, who had managed Giovando’s successful 1952 campaign, when he became leader prior to the 1953 election. The Party was desperate to dump outgoing leader Herbert Anscomb and after party heavyweights like George Pearkes declined, the youthful Finlayson stepped up.  He ran in Oak Bay in 1953, a by-election in Victoria in 1953, and in North Vancouver in 1956 and 1960, as leader.

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Deane Finlayson

The results were dismal, though the assessment of Finlayson has always been sterling.  He had a reputation for honest speech, was commended for his WWII service in the RCAF, and had a lifetime of community service.  In business, he developed the Island’s largest mall, Woodgrove, and built much of Hammond Bay, in the Nanaimo riding.  In the process of adding Finlayson to this post (which was a terrible oversight), I found a thesis outlining the demise of the Progressive Conservatives: From Rule to Ruin, for you political junkies out there).  Finlayson’s biography is here.

Like many Socreds of that age, Earle Westwood was a small businessman and local leader.  A funeral home operator, Mayor of Nanaimo, and School Board Chair.  He served in cabinet under W.A.C. in ministries such as Trade and Industry, Commercial Transport, and Recreation and Conservation.  He was from a pioneering Nanaimo family.

Finally, in 1963, under the banner of the NDP, Dave Stupich wins. Avenging his near losses, he edged Earle Westwood by 18 votes.

It wouldn’t get much easier for Stupich in the short-term.  Enter the Pirate.

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The Pirate: Frank Ney

At the time of the 1966 election, Frank Ney was a Notary and co-owner of Nanaimo Realty. He had already been involved in countless community initiatives.  I’m not sure when it started, but he is renown for dressing up as a pirate.  (He would also chair the committee in 1967 that led to Nanaimo’s world famous bathtub races).  He replaced Westwood as the Social Credit standard bearer and took on Dave Stupich.  As often happens in politics, the luck evens out.  Stupich won another nail-biter, this time by 45 votes.

Now Mayor of Nanaimo, Ney returned for a rematch in 1969.  He defeated Stupich by 469
votes and went on to serve as both mayor and MLA concurrently.   The Liberal in the 1969 race netted 722 votes.  Did he play a role in defeating Dave Stupich?  I don’t know, you would have to ask him.  Screen Shot 2019-01-16 at 10.19.07 PM.png

That young whippersnapper’s name is Bob Plecas.  50 years later and he’s still causing a ruckus in BC politics.

So, to recap the amazing political success of the lefties in the main Nanaimo riding, between World War I and 1970, lefties (ie. Dave Stupich alone) won two out of 16 elections.  They did much better in the southern Cowichan-Newcastle riding, winning almost all of the time, but in the main Nanaimo riding, it was hardly the Socialist stronghold that it had once been in the early 1900s.

At that point, the screen goes dark for free enterprisers.

The Barrett Years to the End of Stupich

Sporting a .250 batting average heading into the 1972 campaign, Stupich had Ney walk the plank, winning by 4000 votes, joining in the tide that swept in BC’s first NDP government.  The Pirate carried on as mayor, serving 21 years in total.

Stupich was chosen as the Minister of Agriculture with a mandate to protect farmland. In their biography of the Barrett government The Art of the Impossible, Geoff Meggs and Rod Mickleburgh write, “Stupich seemed like the ideal man to lead the change.  An accountant with a degree in agriculture, the Nanaimo MLA was a Barrett loyalist, a veteran of the legislature, and a former agriculture critic with a wealth of contacts around the province.”

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Interesting account of Stupich and the creation of ALR, and an overall good read.

Stupich was quick out of the gates and announced that legislation to protect farmland and compensate farmers would be ready for a fall session in 1972.  Says Meggs/Mickleburgh, “Stupich not only failed to seek a cost analysis of the compensation pledge – an astonishing oversight for an accountant – but began to execute a deliberate strategy of public statements designed to lock Barrett and the cabinet into a compensation plan before either had a chance to review the bill.”  It was a daring or reckless move by Stupich, depending on your view.

Stupich made an “extraordinary keynote” to farmers that fall stating, “My advice to developers right now is not to gamble by investing their money in farmland.” Stupich asserted that a freeze had been put on rezoning agricultural land (which was not true).   His comments triggered a province-wide rush to rezone. On December 21, with Barrett out of town, an “angry cabinet” was convinced by Stupich to freeze the sale of all agricultural land until further notice.   Continuing to borrow from Meggs and Mickleburgh’s account, NDP heavyweight Bob Williams later described the ordeal as a “tough, bitter battle” to rein in Stupich.  The internal debate revolved around compensation, while the external debate was plunging the new government into major controversy.  The end result was the Agricultural Land Reserve (ALR), an enduring legacy of the Barrett government.

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Dave Stupich: 44 years running for office in Nanaimo

By 1975, the ALR had been implemented which Meggs/Mickleburgh say did much to restore Stupich’s reputation as a policy-maker.  1975 was a year of great change in BC politics.  The Social Credit Party was in a revival led by the younger Bill Bennett with Grace McCarthy barnstorming among the grassroots. Polarization intensified and ‘fear of the NDP’ drove moderates into the arms of the Socreds.  Three Liberal MLAs joined Bennett’s team along with one Progressive Conservative MLA, and, ultimately, one NDP MLA too.  The drumbeat became louder for a ‘snap election’ to catch the opposition off guard.  In fall 1975, Barrett readied his team and shuffled his cabinet.  Stupich was appointed Minister of Finance.  The snap election was called, but when the votes were counted in December, the Barrett government had been trounced. Stupich won with a reduced margin, defeating future Nanaimo mayor Graeme Roberts.

The loss was devastating for the NDP, but it cannot be said that they coasted during their term in government.  They had a very active and aggressive agenda, which was halted abruptly when they were defeated.  Dave Barrett lost his seat and plans were made to return him to the Legislature. Vancouver East MLA Bob Williams agreed to step aside, with Stupich playing a key role, arranging financing to cover off Barrett while he was out of a job, and to help compensate Bob Williams after he had resigned.  How? Through the Nanaimo Commonwealth Holdings Society (NCHS).

The NCHS was a Nanaimo institution that was built on bingo proceeds.  Stupich, an accountant, engineered it into a political fund that supported NDP.  It operated like a parallel political fund to the NDP itself.  Rod Mickleburgh described its purpose in a Globe & Mail article (2000)reporting on the testimony of Dave Barrett, where it was used for many purposes such as Williams’ compensation, funding political activity, Barrett’s federal leadership campaign, and Stupich’s leadership campaign.  The NCHS mess would not catch up with Stupich until much later.

Stupich consolidated his hold on the riding with smashing wins in 1979 (5,000 votes) and 1983 (4,000 votes).  It was a time of ever-increasing polarization as the third and fourth place parties (Liberals and PCs) melted away with voters essentially being forced to pick sides between the NDP and Socreds.  In Nanaimo, most chose the NDP.

What are the reasons for Nanaimo being a competitive playing field in the 1960s compared to being an NDP stronghold in 1970s and beyond?  Was it demographics? Riding boundary changes? Sophisticated organizing and party machinery?  Social Credit alienating labour? All of the above?

Maybe it was a bit of Tommy Douglas’s magic?  The former Saskatchewan Premier was the first leader of the NDP, though he lost his Saskatchewan seat.  A seat opened in Burnaby-Seymour and he carried on through the 1960s.  He lost that seat in 1968 to

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Dale Lovick edited this book of Tommy Douglas speeches

Liberal Ray Perrault. Around the time, Nanaimo’s NDP MP Colin Cameron died in office. Douglas won the byelection and served until 1979 when he retired.  He was voted “The Greatest Canadian” in a CBC competition and is often called the “Father of Medicare”.  Regardless of one’s views, he is a leader that was held in high regard by other parties, and revered in his own.  Some years later, when I was campaigning for Bob Rae’s bid to be Liberal leader, I asked former Nanaimo NDP MP Ted Miller if he would support Bob, who he served with in the House of Commons.  Though Ted’s wonderful wife Patti was a strong supporter of Bob’s, Ted told me, “I can’t do it to Tommy”.  Such was his respect for the man.

During Stupich’s fifth term of office, Dave Barrett resigned as NDP leader. He had lost his third successive rematch to Bill Bennett and it was time to go. A wide-open NDP leadership race broke out and Dave Stupich jumped in as a candidate. The party broker and backroom financier was 63 years old and representative of a bygone era in the NDP.  He was not the default ‘establishment candidate’ nor was he ‘change’. He placed fifth on the first ballot and fourth on the second, far behind the leaders.  He was eliminated on the third ballot, and watched the Party crown Port Alberni’s Bob Skelly, a compromise choice it would soon regret.

Stupich continued on as NDP candidate in the 1986 election.  Nanaimo had become a 2-member seat.  Malaspina College professor Dale Lovick joined the ticket and the two of them easily prevailed in an election that saw Socred Bill Vander Zalm romp to victory over Skelly.  This time, the NDP would acclaim Mike Harcourt as leader.  Not long after, during a time of great optimism for the NDP’s federal chances, Stupich resigned his seat and ran federally, winning handily. The opportunity for the NDP did not pan out, but they did well in BC.  A disappointed Broadbent resigned, with Stupich backing Dave Barrett’s federal leadership bid.  He lost and the party leadership went to the unsteady hand of Audrey McLaughlin.  The NDP would be reduced to a small rump group in 1993 and Stupich would lose his seat to the Reform Party’s Bob Ringma.  At age 72, he had been retired from elected office.

Stupich’s exit from provincial politics created a 1989 byelection to replace him. The NDP put forward Jan Pullinger, a relatively unknown candidate then.

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Tough Guy McNabb

The Socreds could not have landed a better candidate – Larry McNabb, a popular former coach of the Nanaimo Clippers, and a former pro hockey player in the Western Hockey League.  McNabb was tough as nails.  Don Cherry (“Grapes”) recalled fighting McNabb.  The Cow Palace in San Francisco had a banner stating, “Larry McNabb: Heavyweight Champion of the WHL”.  The two paired off and McNabb broke his hand on Cherry’s head.  Cherry recounts it here.  However, on the streets of Nanaimo, McNabb was no match for the NDP, especially when he was weighed down by Premier Bill Vander Zalm’s unpopularity.  Pullinger knocked out McNabb and served twelve years in office, including various posts in Cabinet.   She and Dale Lovick married during that time, and were a political power couple in the Nanaimo area.

It was during Stupich’s federal term of office, 1988-1993, that the NCHS scandal reared its head.  Mike Harcourt had led the NDP to power in BC in 1991 with a strong majority government. In 1992, a whistleblower by the name of Jacques Carpentier went to the Nanaimo RCMP with his concerns about the misuse of charitable money by the NCHS.  As the story unfolded, the scandal engulfed the NDP.  Stupich had been at the heart of the party for a long time, and it seemed that he had solved a lot of NDP problems with available cash.

A forensic audit was ordered which was a political disaster.  The Harcourt government flailed in the controversy, with Opposition Leader Gordon Campbell leading the charge along with a press gallery that was generating headlines.  In 1995, Harcourt, who had nothing really to do with the scandal, announced he would not run again.  He took the fall.  A leadership convention was called and Glen Clark was elected leader.  Bingogate was erased from the headlines as Clark launched a blitzkrieg on the BC Liberals who had enjoyed a hefty lead in the polls.  The political debate was reordered to traditional business-labour, class war themes, rather than scandal.

In Nanaimo, Dale Lovick sought his third term in office amidst the controversy. He was closely aligned with Stupich. Nanaimo Mayor Gary Korpan ran for the BC Liberals.  There was much optimism among the Liberals of storming the NDP bastion, but on election night, not only did Glen Clark win a majority government for the NDP, Nanaimo returned Lovick to the Legislature comfortably.

The NCHS scandal deepened.  Stupich was charged with 64 counts of theft, fraud, forgery, and breach of trust.  He eventually would plead guilty and serve two years less a day under electronic monitoring.

A 1999 CBC item, outlining one way how the NDP was embroiled in the scandal, demonstrates how far Stupich had fallen in the graces of the NDP. Then-party president Bruce Ralston said the party was misled by Stupich.  He said, “It’s painful… not a particularly proud moment for the NDP… but we have apologized, various premiers have apologized…”

Following his death in 2006, Lovick said, “When I think in terms of Dave and his career, I think in terms of great tragedy. Here was a guy who, until a series of events late in his political career, was universally admired and respected. How sad his career ended as it did. He did more good than bad, that’s for sure.”  Stupich’s former colleague Alex MacDonald, Attorney-General in the Barrett government, told the Bingogate Inquiry, “He put up a hotel and a senior citizens’ home, a tower with the bingo rooms. Nanaimo wasn’t hurt by the actions of Dave Stupich; it was helped.”

Such were the conflicted feelings that many in Nanaimo and throughout the NDP felt.  From the time a 28-year old Stupich sought office in 1949 until 1993, he was a central figure in Nanaimo politics.  He had friends across the spectrum.  He was a regional ‘boss’ like few others in the province.  During his time, Nanaimo became an ‘NDP town’.  It came crashing down on Stupich, but the NDP barely missed a beat.

1991 – 2018

Dale Lovick served until 2001.  He was regarded as one of the most talented NDP backbenchers.  NCHS probably held him back during the Harcourt years.  He became Speaker in 1996 then was appointed to Cabinet in 1998.  He was quick-witted in the House, a good debater, and never had to sweat during his three election wins.

In 1991, riding boundaries changed and a considerable chunk of North Nanaimo was included in the Parksville-Qualicum riding.   Nanaimo lawyer Leonard Krog ran for the NDP, sweeping to victory as part of the Harcourt win.  In reality, the opposition to the NDP was split in that riding between a disorganized BC Liberal campaign and the dying Socreds.  Krog served in the backbench, along with Lovick, and Pullinger.  The central Island did not make the cut in the Harcourt cabinet.

In 1996, five-term Parksville mayor Paul Reitsma won the BC Liberal nomination and edged Krog by 483 votes, winning the only seat for the Liberals north of Victoria on Vancouver Island.  Reitmsa scrapped with regional NDP politicians in local newspapers.  At some point, he had the not-so-bright idea to write phony letters to the editor under the pen name of “Warren Betanko”, a name that will live on forever.  When the Parksville newspaper broke the news that its MLA was forging letters, Reitsma was on the run.  The morning the story hit, I talked to his constituency assistant.  “Will probably blow over”, I said.  By noon, Reitsma was out of the Liberal Caucus.  Citizens across the spectrum rallied to form a recall campaign. Over 60 days, Reitsma felt the heat. Rather than be the first MLA in Canadian history to be recalled, he resigned.

The NDP probably saw this an opportunity to win back Krog’s seat, and he was convinced to run.  Krog had a reputation in his first term as being a bit more outspoken than your average backbench MLA.  He was their best shot.  However, the Glen Clark government was becoming very unpopular as the economy struggled and a litany of scandals and controversies plagued them.  Meanwhile, Gordon Campbell and the BC Liberals were getting their act together.  Just like 1975, the non-NDP public was starting to pull together behind one party. Seven candidates vied for the nomination and on a Saturday afternoon, close to 1000 people jammed Dover Bay Secondary to elect Judith Reid over a host of more experienced candidates.

Reid was a shellfish farmer from Deep Bay in the north end of the riding.  No elected experience, she was an unconventional choice.  She was an independent in BC Liberal clothing, which worked to her advantage. While Krog could demonstrate his superior knowledge on policies at that point, Reid won the community with her earnestness, and a deeply held view to not elect the NDP.  Reid trounced Krog 53% to 23%.  The result was a declarative statement on the true state of the NDP’s political fortunes.  Less than a year later, Glen Clark was out of office.

In 2001, BC voters spanked the NDP hard, with Campbell’s Liberals winning 77 of 79 seats, including all 13 on Vancouver Island.  Reid had a massive win in Parksville-Qualicum-North Nanaimo (57%), while political newcomer Mike Hunter, a fisheries executive who had recently moved to Nanaimo, defeated Krog in what was seen as a safe NDP seat.    Reid was made Minister of Transportation and served until 2004.  During her time, she oversaw the sale of BC Rail, which became a political firestorm. Though the controversy, and resulting investigations, did not touch Reid, she decided not to run again in 2005.  She was exited from Cabinet to make way for new blood that would be running for re-election.  Hunter served his term in the backbench and was seen as a strong constituency MLA.  But by 2005, the NDP had roared back to life. New leader Carole James put a new face on the troubled brand and gave Campbell a run for the money.  While the Campbell Liberals were re-elected, the Nanaimo riding returned to the NDP fold with Krog winning the rematch with Hunter 52% to 34%.  In the Parksville-North Nanaimo seat, Nanaimo Councillor Ron Cantelon succeeded Reid as BC Liberal MLA.

Cantelon and Krog were both easily re-elected in 2009. By this time, a chunk of south Nanaimo was added to the north end of the Cowichan Valley, becoming a strong NDP riding with Doug Routley as MLA.  Cantelon was instrumental in coordinating provincial funding for Nanaimo area projects like airport expansion, the creation of Vancouver Island University, and funding for the port and convention centre.  In the 2000s, North Nanaimo was becoming as much of a political base of the BC Liberals as South Nanaimo is for the NDP, thanks in no small part to their relentless organizer Jack Doan.

After serving a stint in cabinet as Minister of Agriculture, and as caucus chair, Cantelon retired in 2013 clearing the way for a prized recruit for Christy Clark – Michelle Stilwell.

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North Nanaimo MLA, and Gold Medallist, Michelle Stilwell

A paralympian multiple gold medallist for Canada, Stilwell presented a young, energizing face for a party that needed to show a new look.  Stilwell became part of a narrative that helped propel Christy Clark to her 2013 election victory.  Starting off as caucus chair, Stilwell joined the cabinet as Minister of Social Development and Social Innovation, winning re-election in 2017 – the last remaining BC Liberal MLA on the Island.

Krog had a surprisingly tighter margin in 2013.  Then running the BC Liberal provincial campaign, I can attest to the fact that we simply could not find a candidate in Nanaimo to contest Krog, or the riding to the south.  They were the 84thand 85thout of 85 ridings to confirm candidates. Once he joined the race during the writ period, former Nanaimo Chamber of Commerce president Walter Anderson put forward a good showing narrowing the margin to nine points.  Pretty good despite few resources and no lead-up time.  Had we had our act together, we might have been able to win in 2013.  In 2017, Krog’s margin widened again in a campaign that saw the BC Liberals running against the tide.

Following the turnover in government in July 2017, Krog was left out of John Horgan’s cabinet.  At that time, Krog had 17 years of experience in the Legislature and had served as Attorney-General critic.  There were lots of other cabinet contenders on the Island and his gender worked against his chances too.  Some say his lack of enthusiasm for the leadership of Carole James, which had split the caucus years earlier, may have been a factor.  Whatever the reason, Krog was out.  The logical conclusion was that he would become Speaker in a very contentious situation. However, the unexpected elevation of Darryl Plecas to that role closed off that option.  Krog stayed on the backbench.  In 2018, as we all know now, Krog announced he would seek the mayor’s chair in Nanaimo.  My previous blog post on the Nanaimo byelection discussed Krog’s surprising decision.  Surprising because of the razor thin governing majority for the NDP and that it would be a Nanaimo MLA – of all things – that would put the government’s survival on the line by resigning.

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His Worship (photo: Nanaimo Bulletin)

He’s mayor now and the byelection is on.  Krog’s batting average as candidate for MLA is .625 – five wins, three losses.  Not too shabby.  The span of his provincial political career is up there with Stupich, Pearson, Strachan, Guthrie, Williams, and Hawthornthwaite.  Though his most important work may be ahead of him at Nanaimo City Hall, a task for which he was fully supported by his potential successor, BC Liberal byelection candidate Tony Harris.  Krog won big for mayor, over a strong candidate too.  Why has Krog been popular? I would argue that he has always stayed close to the community and approachable, with his integrity never in question.  Tough act to replace.

And… ?

This historical stroll through Nanaimo’s political history has been surprising to me, a political nut who lived in the area for fifteen years.  My research, which was a full-scale mobilization of underappreciated works on my bookshelves, exposed my ignorance regarding vast parts of Nanaimo’s and our province’s history.  While excessively long, this blog post actually gives short shrift to major events that defined the city, such as the activism around the coal mines, and also the development of a strong small business community that paralleled the strength of the unions for much of Nanaimo’s history.  Happily, there are some great books and articles on these topics that deserve a lot of attention.

What can be said about Nanaimo is that it has been populated by some real originals from all parts of the spectrum. Nanaimo politicians have often spoken their minds over the years.  They’ve had their elbows up and they have strived to make their mark.  Is Nanaimo an NDP town?  Demographically, it shouldn’t be a slam dunk, but tradition over the past 50+ years has been powerful.  Stupich helped build the tradition, while Lovick and Krog consolidated the party’s hold.  Since the NDP was formed, it has won 13 of 15 times in the core Nanaimo seat.  It’s also a matter of boundaries – shift that riding to the north, and drop a little to the south, and the NDP loses its advantage. Nanaimo’s history plays out to this day on a north-south axis.

As much as Nanaimo grows and changes, the coal still lies beneath the surface. Nanaimo’s politics run deep.  The byelection gives voters a chance to consider Nanaimo’s identity.  Will they go with a candidate that speaks to a tradition of independence, or stay with a party that it has loyally backed?  The wildcard – the Green candidate, the Pirate’s daughter– presents an option to take the tradition in an entirely new direction.

Some advice.  Whoever does become the MLA, keep an eye on your spectacles.

Thanks for reading.

(Featured image: EJ Hughes, Steamer at the Old Wharf, Nanaimo)

Additional content:

Adding feedback from Bruce Strongitharm, who’s father Ted Strongitharm ran for the Progressive Conservatives in 1960.

I remember the election as if I was 13, oh wait I was 13. My dad’s big race was against the Liberal candidate Hugh Heath ( his wife later became a liberal senator) because everyone new either the Social Credit or CCF were going to win. Alas Heath won the mini race. I had fun though. My dad would take a van with a speaker on top and stop at a residential street corner and do his campaign speech followed by door knocking. Wasn’t always well received. The leader of the Conservatives then was my dad’s good friend Deane Finlayson (my younger brother is named after him) also lived in Nanaimo but ran in North Vancouver I think. He didn’t win either. The bridge is still a good idea. There major item on the brochure that Mike left out was “getting rid of the one man rule”.

The math of the Nanaimo by-election

What can we expect for turnout in the Nanaimo by-election?

I took a look at five competitive by-elections since 1989 – government-held seats where both the government and opposition had a good chance to win.

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In all of these cases, there should have been ample incentive for both government and opposition to win and, therefore, work hard to get their vote out.

By-election turnout as a percentage of the previous general election ranged from 40% to 89%.  None of these examples, nor any example of any by-election in recent memory, saw a higher turnout than a general election.  Therefore, it is pretty safe to say that fewer people will vote than the 2017 general election even though Press Gallery sage Keith Baldrey calls it “pivotal” and NDP candidate Sheila Malcolmson calls it, “The most important by-election in BC history.”

The NDP pulled off by-election upsets in 1989 and 2012 when they over-performed declining turnout.  In both cases, they had more votes than the previous general election.   Part of that was motivating their supporters and part of it was winning votes from non-traditional supporters.  In two other cases, the NDP still won by-elections from the BC Liberal government even though they had fewer votes compared to the previous election (in which they lost).

Poor old governments.  They have a tough time in by-elections.  In these five examples, the government of the day had between 30% and 75% of the votes from the previous election.  In Oak Bay in 1989, 75% should have been enough to elect Susan Brice.  Campaign manager Frank Leonard probably thought he had the votes.  But NDP candidate Elizabeth Cull really brought the vote out in an anti-Vander Zalm tide.  (It didn’t help the Socreds that Liberal Paul McKivett grabbed 9% either – a story for another day).

The 2011 Pt. Grey by-election is a good parallel for Nanaimo.  Here was a newly elected leader of the governing party, Christy Clark, seeking her way into the Legislature.  I can say, as her then-Chief of Staff, that I never seriously contemplated losing this by-election.  We were too darn busy at the time to think about losing.  Yet, with our campaign only garnering 68% of the votes from the previous election, and NDP David Eby garnering 78% of the previous campaign’s NDP votes, it became uncomfortably close.  If Eby had taken 90% of the votes of Mel Lehan’s 2009 effort in Pt. Grey, he would have won then, instead of 2013, and created a major problem for me.

In 2017, the Nanaimo riding results were as follows:

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So, you can expect there will be less than 27,399 that vote in this by-election.  According to recent history, we might reasonably expect a range of 69% (Pt. Grey) to 85% (Chilliwack-Hope) of the previous election, or a range of about 18,900 to 23,300 voters.  If 40% share of the popular vote is a win, because of a strong Green in the race, then 7,600 to 9,300 votes might be enough to win.  Maybe less if this emerges as a three-way race.

A more recent example is the ProRep referendum.

A total of 19,938 Nanaimo riding residents voted, with a majority (10,785) voting for First-Past-the-Post.  Perhaps that’s the floor for the by-election turnout.  I will leave it others to speculate what 10,785 First-Past-the-Voters might be thinking about BC politics right now.

Why does this matter?

Because when turnout declines, as it surely will, in this by-election, motivating supporters becomes more important.  The three main parties will work very hard to motivate their support base.

The NDP base may not be as strong as some assume.  First of all, Leonard Krog is not on the ballot.  How much of the vote was NDP and how much was Leonard Krog?  We’ll soon find out.

Secondly, Sheila Malcolmson’s support as NDP MP was not as strong as some assume.  She only received 33% of the vote in the past federal election.  I haven’t crunched the numbers, but I think she did better south of the current provincial riding than she did within.  That may have been more of a problem with Tom Mulcair’s flagging fortunes than anything, but the fact remains that Malcolmson did not have huge coattails of her own.

You might crunch the 2017 numbers and say, “The NDP still have a pretty big cushion”.  You would be right.  But go back to 2013 and look at those results.  It was a lot closer between the NDP and BC Liberals. How much of a difference will Andrew Wilkinson and Tony Harris make in favour of the BC Liberals, and how much difference did Leonard Krog make for the NDP?  We’ll see.

For a deeper dive on BC by-election turnout, see my 2016 posts: A Deeper Dive on By-election Turnout and Turnout goes Underground.

Federal Leaders in By-elections and the Burnaby battleground

Updated (August 17th)

NDP leader Jagmeet Singh announced his bid for a federal seat today in the riding of Burnaby South, vacated by Vancouver mayoralty aspirant and NDP incumbent Kennedy Stewart.

Burnaby South is over 4,000 km from Singh’s former riding in the Brampton area, but he’s certainly not the first federal leader to leave his home province to seek entry into the House via a by-election.

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Will Jagmeet Singh ride on to victory in Burnaby-South? [Cycling Magazine]

Rt. Hon. Brian Mulroney was elected in 1983 as MP from the riding of Central Nova in Nova Scotia.  He gave the seat back to Elmer MacKay when he led the 1984 election from his hometown riding of Manicouagan in Quebec.  Rt. Hon. Stephen Harper found a seat close to home in 2002 when he re-entered the House from Preston Manning’s seat of Calgary Southwest. Rebel founder Ezra Levant had secured the nomination but was evidently persuaded to step aside for the new leader of the Canadian Alliance (this was before the Alliance and PC’s merged).  Of note, both the Liberals and the PC candidate, Jim Prentice, stepped aside to make way for Harper.  The NDP fielded a candidate.

Rt. Hon. Joe Clark made a political comeback to return as leader of the Progressive Conservative Party in 1998 and sought election to the House of Commons in early 2000 when then-PC MP Scott Brison stepped aside in Kings-Hant to make way.

As for Liberals, the longest-serving Prime Minister of all-time, Rt. Hon. William Lyon Mackenzie King, lost his seat in York North in 1925 and sought a new seat in Prince Albert, Saskatchewan, winning a by-election there in February 1926.  An interesting side note is that Rt. Hon. John Diefenbaker encouraged an independent to run against King in the by-election, then Diefenbaker himself ran unsuccessfully against King in the subsequent 1926 general election. King would continue to represent Prince Albert until the 1945 election when he lost to a CCFer.  He sought re-entry into the House via Glengarry in Ontario and retired while representing that seat.

Rt. Hon. John Turner was the newly appointed prime minister, without a seat, when he announced he would contest the 1984 election from Vancouver-Quadra.  While he had attended UBC and had a longstanding family connection to BC, he had lived in Eastern Canada for decades and did not pretend too hard that he would actually move to Vancouver.  Despite the disastrous national campaign, Turner held on to claim Quadra from the PC’s and the Liberals have held it for the past 34 years.

Jean Chrétien’s return to the House of Commons in 1990 came via the New Brunswick riding of Beausejour. He returned to his home riding of Saint-Maurice

The NDP can look back at the experience of Tommy Douglas.  Douglas was defeated in his first attempt to win election to the House of Commons from the riding of Regina-Centre in 1962.  The former Saskatchewan premier, and first elected leader of the NDP, had to find a seat out-of-province in… Burnaby.  He was elected in Burnaby-Coquitlam in 1963 and 1965.  In 1968, he contested Burnaby-Seymour (similar to MP Terry Beech’s current riding) and lost to Hon. Ray Perrault.  Perrault was a former leader of the BC Liberal Party and a gritty, grassroots politician.  While he would only serve one-term, he went on to a distinguished career in the Senate.  As for Douglas, his opportunity to regain a seat was borne from tragedy when Nanaimo-Cowichan-The Islands MP Colin Cameron (grandfather of NDP strategist Robin Sears) passed away not longer after the 1968 election.  Douglas won a 1969 by-election there and represented the seat until 1979.

Topical in the news these days is Rt. Hon. John A. Macdonald who was elected in Victoria in 1878.  I assumed it was a by-election victory, but he actually contested three separate ridings in the general election that year, and, having lost in Kingston, he chose to represent Victoria where he had defeated Liberal Amor de Cosmos (!).  Sir Wilfred Laurier also contested multiple districts and won in both Quebec-East and Saskatchewan provisional district in 1896, choosing to represent Quebec-East.

Green Party leader Elizabeth May announced on August 16th that due to  “longstanding parliamentary tradition” she would extend ‘leader’s courtesy’ to Jagmeet Singh by not fielding a Green candidate.

Longstanding tradition?  That’s a selective interpretation of history.  Here are the by-elections contested by leaders:

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Every leader noted above has been contested in a by-election, and since 1962, every leader has been contested by at least one other main political party.  The NDP have never extended Leader’s courtesy in a by-election.  Even the Greens contested Harper’s by-election.   And certainly on a provincial level, neither the Greens nor the NDP honoured the “longstanding parliamentary tradition” of leader’s courtesy to Hon. Christy Clark in her two by elections (Point Grey in 2011, West Kelowna in 2013).

Courtesy aside, leaders need a seat in the House and sometimes have to go far afield to find one.  When they are ‘adopted’, sometimes they stay put.  Singh says he will move to Burnaby.

But can Jagmeet Singh win Burnaby-South?  Presumably, the NDP have polled the riding and believe they can win it.  It would be a huge risk, otherwise.  It does not appear to be a slam-dunk seat for the NDP though.

In 2015, Liberal Adam Pankratz won election day.  It was Kennedy Stewart’s margin-of-victory in the advance polls that saved his bacon.  This was a result of two factors – Liberal momentum was still building during the advance polls and the NDP had a superior GOTV machine.

Table 1: Burnaby-South in 2011 and 2015

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Liberal Adam Pankratz (left) with PM Trudeau and MP Terry Beech [Burnaby Now]

Liberal gains in 2015 came at the expense of both the NDP and the Conservatives.  Pankratz himself, a young, educated multilingual candidate whose father was a well-known BC Lion football player, presented well for the Liberals.

There are other variables to consider.

The federal NDP typically does not do well in British Columbia when there is an NDP government in Victoria.  The 1974 election was a disaster for the federal NDP, in the height of the Dave Barrett government.  The federal NDP were decimated in the 1993, 1997, and 2000 elections in BC while a parade of NDP premiers governed (though Svend Robinson held his Burnaby riding).  Will it be a factor this time?  At this point, I don’t think the provincial NDP have angered voters in the manner of previous NDP governments.  It’s early days.  However, being in power can demotivate activists who are accustomed to fighting the establishment rather than being a part of it.

Singh’s connection to BC is not apparently strong.  He will have recruited support during his NDP leadership run in BC, especially from the South Asian community.  But he lacks the personal ‘story’ that Mulroney had in Nova Scotia (he attended university) or Turner had in BC.  Maybe there is one that I haven’t heard yet, and it may not matter that much anyway.

Another factor is Kinder Morgan.  On the surface of it, the NDP have this field to themselves.  The NDP Mayor of Burnaby, a formidable force, strongly opposes the pipeline.  The Liberals and the Conservatives are on the other side of the debate.  Assuming the Greens can be kept at bay (a big assumption), the NDP may have room on that issue.  But is the worm turning on this issue? The protest camp has been drawing negative attention.  Are people ‘worn out’ on all of the Kinder politics? We’ll see.

Municipally in Burnaby, Mayor Derek Corrigan has ruled since 2002.  He has built a strong political machine.  For the first time in a long time, he faces a credible challenge this October.  Will that divert energies away from Singh’s campaign? Will the winds of change blow away from NDP candidates?  Opponents hope, but I know from experience that the NDP machine in Burnaby is real.  It will take a lot to defeat them.  Singh has to get the most out of the local organization.

About 46,000 residents voted in 2015.  In a by-election, the turnout is almost always lower.  GOTV will be a huge factor.  Not just the ‘machine’ but the motivation of voters to vote.  Will they turn out for Jagmeet Singh? He will have to build a connection with them.

Kennedy Stewart’s departure may be another factor.  Vancouver mayoralty candidates will be taking shots at Stewart for leaving his post as a Burnaby MP to run in another jurisdiction.  It turns out Stewart was living in Vancouver – how is that going over in Burnaby? Issues like “demovictions” are being raised in Burnaby which could make life uncomfortable for NDPers.  It may all amount to nothing and the status quo may well prevail.  We’ll see how the opposition approaches it.

Singh obviously has the most to win and lose.  A win gets him into the House while getting a weight off his back.  A loss could be curtains for him.

Some Liberals may want Singh to win, preferring his leadership to an unknown alternative that could present itself in the aftermath of a Singh by-election loss.  Liberals ought to be concerned about the Conservatives winning though.  As the 2011 results show, the Conservatives were not far off.  The Liberals could consider not running a candidate, as was the case with the Stephen Harper by-election in 2002.  This would be a bit surprising given their narrow margin of defeat in 2015.  They might also yield the seat to the Conservatives if they fail to contest it.  We will most likely see all parties in it.

It will be an interesting test of the three parties.  We have seen the Liberals steal a Conservative seat in White Rock and the Conservatives steal a Liberal seat in Chicoutimi in recent by-elections.  Local factors played a big role, but this by-election will take on more of a national dimension.

The upshot is that Singh is the favourite but there are a lot of reasons why this may not be an easy ride.  It’s not a slam dunk.  He does not have the advantages of being a sitting prime minister and not especially well-known in British Columbia. The riding was a close call in 2015.  It’s a risk, but politics often rewards the risk-takers.  Or buries them.

 

Taking a look at Chicoutimi

This week’s by-election made me a bit curious about Chicoutimi.  It’s a long way from my perch on the west coast and probably even further in cultural terms. Turns out to be a pretty interesting riding in terms of its political history and volatility.

The riding boundaries have changed over time but I have gone with the main Chicoutimi riding to see the overall trends (purists alert – this is not precise, just directional).  Since Diefenbaker, Chicoutimi has gone Creditiste, Liberal, PC, Bloc, PC, Liberal, NDP, Liberal, and, now, CPC.

Chart 1: Chicoutimi federal election results since 1962

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Here’s a closer look at elections since 2000…

Chart 2: Chicoutimi federal election results since 2000 only

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As the charts show, there has been huge volatility over time.  Parties swing from domination to destruction.  For the NDP, they managed to go from 8% to winning with 38% and back to 9% over four elections.

The Liberal percentage held fairly steady compared to 2015.  Before 2015, the prior Liberal win was with Andre Harvey who had been first elected as a federal PC MP in 1984.  Harvey won in ’84, ’88, and ’97 as PC, but crossed over, and won as a Liberal in 2000. Harvey’s nemesis was the Bloc Quebecois which won in ’93 and again in 2004, 2006, and 2008 before giving way to the one-and-done NDP MP.

The Conservatives were lower than a snake’s belly in 2000 and 2004, and only at 17% last election, but clearly their candidate in the by-election did an excellent job drawing support.  The question is: are we also seeing a consolidation in Quebec between the Liberals on one side and the Conservatives on the other, feasting from the remnants of NDP and Bloc support?

I will leave that to others to judge. Quebec politics is definitely above my pay scale.

On a national basis, if the NDP collapses in Quebec, it will have an impact on their national effort.  The NDP had one-quarter of the vote in Quebec in 2015, with Quebec representing about one-quarter of the national population.  That’s good for about 6% nationally in the popular vote.  Chicoutimi-Le Fjord dropped from 29.7% (above Quebec average for NDP in 2015) to 8.7% in the by-election.  Not to read too much into by-elections, but if the NDP slip to 10% province-wide in the next election, that drops their national share of the vote by about 4%.  That means they are going to look more like a third party that can’t keep up with the Liberals and Conservatives, whereas in 2011 and 2015, they were at the main table.  The Layton legacy is in real jeopardy and that will have consequences across the country unless they can find new voters elsewhere. The Tom Mulcair days are looking pretty good right now.

Pondering a Nanaimo By-election

Nanaimo NDP MLA Leonard Krog announced his candidacy for Mayor of Nanaimo on Wednesday.  If he wins, his resignation as MLA will set up a high stakes by-election that could have a major impact on the government’s razor thin margin in the House.

Nanaimo is a mess and an embarrassment.  Whatever the reasons are, the Council has failed to pull themselves together, evidenced by criminal investigations, staff departures, and chaos. The City, renowned for tasty Nanaimo bars and bathtub races, but lately for dysfunctional politics, desperately needs new leadership.

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Krog pondering the fate of British Columbia.  (Nanaimo News Now)

Leonard is a well-respected elected official who has respect from both sides of the electoral fence.  I lived in the area for 15 years and saw Leonard around town a lot – he’s present.  He’s well liked.  I like him.  He’s a good constituency MLA.

The City has a ton of potential.  It’s growing, it has an underrated university that does great things, an airport that is one of the fastest growing in Canada, and if someone would please figure out a passenger-ferry link to Vancouver, it would be very attractive for housing-stressed families that work in Vancouver area.  It’s a pretty good lifestyle on the mid-Island.  It would be even better if the City could get its act together.

It is surprising though that Leonard would seek to leave his post as MLA.  When I first heard the rumours of his mayoral candidacy, I rejected them out of hand.  Notwithstanding the need in Nanaimo, the NDP have a precarious hold on the Legislature after having endured a sixteen year time-out.  I thought there was no way that a by-election could even be contemplated.

Leonard has been serving as MLA since 2005 (and before that he was a government backbencher from 1991-1996).  He has 17 years of service, but the call to Cabinet did not come last year.  Perhaps, had it not been for Darryl Plecas, he would be Speaker today, and, thus, a central figure in a split Legislature.  That opportunity passed him by as well.  I’m not sure if any of this factored into his decision, but here we are.

If Leonard wins as mayor and resigns as MLA, the Legislature would then stand at 40 NDP, 3 Green, 42 BC Liberal, and 1 Independent until a by-election fills the seat.

If the BC Liberals win the by-election, they would then have as many MLAs as the combined NDP-Greens, with the Independent Speaker (formerly a BC Liberal) holding the tiebreaker.  We can go back a year in time to the exhaustive discussions about how the Legislature will be in gridlock if it is tied.  The recruitment of Darryl Plecas relieved that pressure, but losing the by-election makes the situation worse than it was pre-Plecas, especially when the situation would be one of the NDP’s own making.

It should be noted that there already is a strong candidate in the Nanaimo mayor’s race – Don Hubbard.  Don is a former chair of Vancouver Island University, a former chair of the Vancouver Island Health Authority, past Citizen of the Year, and an active businessperson in the Nanaimo area.  He brings a lot to the table as a mayoralty candidate.  While he does not have the profile of Leonard, Nanaimo has only elected one left-leaning mayor (Joy Leach) since the 1960s, and through much of that time, elected a free enterprise pirate.   Hubbard is more than capable to be the mayor and could save Horgan the grief of a by-election.

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Modern-day Nanaimo Pirate: Is Leonard Krog making John Horgan walk the plank?

If Leonard does win and resign, is there a chance the NDP could lose the by-election?

There are a number of things about the Nanaimo riding to consider.

  • Nanaimo is a north-south City.  The BC Liberals are strong in the north; the NDP are very strong in the south.  A lot of North Nanaimo was previously in the Parksville-Qualicum riding when Judith Reid and Ron Cantelon were the MLAs, but the redistribution prior to 2009 pushed the core Nanaimo seat to the north.  This favoured the BC Liberals chances in Nanaimo, but they have not been able to capitalize on that shift.  Had former BC Liberal MLA Mike Hunter run on the current boundaries in 2005, he would have been very close to winning the seat.  Instead, he lost to Leonard on previous boundaries.
  • Prior to 2017, the boundaries were tweaked.  It improved the riding yet again for the BC Liberals as some polls in the tough south end were swapped over to Nanaimo-North Cowichan while some good BC Liberal polls were added in.  It didn’t help. The BC Liberals did worse in 2017 but that was for other reasons.
  • With Leonard, the NDP had a strong candidate with a strong local brand.  There is no question he added to the NDP margin.  In 2013, BC Liberal Walter Anderson was the 84th of 85 BC Liberal candidates nominated.  He was in Hawaii when the campaign started and was recruited by phone.  He did a good job and lost to Leonard by only 9.5% – not a huge margin, and won 34 polls, indicating a solid base of support.  Had the NDP not had Leonard, had the BC Liberals been more organized, and had the current boundaries been in place, it might have gone to the BC Liberals.  Coulda shoulda woulda.

Chart 1: Total votes in Nanaimo riding by Party (2005-2017)

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  • In 2017, the BC Liberals performed poorly across the entire Island.  While Paris Gaudet increased the number of votes for the BC Liberals compared to 2013, turnout increased considerably with the Greens and NDP also growing.  The spread between the NDP and BC Liberals grew.  Things have changed now.  Christy Clark – who had become a lightning rod – has moved on.  Andrew Wilkinson is yet to be truly introduced to voters.  John Horgan appears strong on the Island but he will not have Leonard on the ballot this time and will have to account for government decisions over the past year.

By-elections in BC suck for governments.  Since 1981 when the Social Credit government won a by-election in Kamloops,  a sitting government has only won by-elections twice and, in both cases, the candidate’s name was Christy Clark (Point Grey and Westside-Kelowna).

The NDP never lost one of their own seats to a by-election in the 1990s, because no one resigned.  In fact, no NDP MLA resigned during the Barrett government either.  If Leonard resigns, it will be the first time in BC history that any NDP MLA has resigned his or her seat while an NDP government held power.

While they didn’t have to defend any seats in the 1990s,  the NDP were trounced in numerous by-elections, including Parksville-Qualicum in 1998 in which Leonard was a candidate.  He had been the MLA in the riding from 1991-1996 but lost in a squeaker to Parksville Mayor Paul Reitsma.  Reitmsa disgraced himself over phoney letters to the editor, and other transgressions, and resigned before he could be recalled.  What was a slim defeat for Leonard in 1996 mushroomed to a 28-point swing and blowout win for BC Liberal Judith Reid in the 1998 by-election.

One year later, in the Delta South by-election,  NDP support plunged from 26% in the previous general election to 2.44%.  This may be a record-low in Canada for an incumbent government in a by-election (which can’t be blamed on the candidate, Richard Tones, who dutifully put his name on the ballot).  Yes, Millennials, the NDP government really was that unpopular.  Is the Horgan government at the same stage as Glen Clark’s government twenty years ago?  No.  Not even close.  But stuff happens and who knows what the next 2, 3, 6 months look like?

(By-elections were not easy for the NDP in the 1990s. In the Matsqui by-election of 1994, the NDP nominated a witch.  The witch did not make it to the ballot).

The BC Liberals had their problems with by-elections too.  Despite being relatively steady in the polls, the BC Liberals lost a relatively safe seat in Coquitlam – Burke Mountain in a 2016 by-election  (a harbinger of things to come).  In 2012, during a time of trouble and turmoil early in her premiership, Christy Clark’s government lost two BC Liberal seats, in Port Moody and Chilliwack-Hope.  Chilliwack-Hope was truly a safe seat yet voters soundly rejected the government.  Is Horgan’s government in the glue as much as Christy Clark’s government was in 2012? No.  Not even close.  But the 2016 example should give them pause for thought.

Since 1981, there have been twelve by-elections were the government defended its seat and government’s record is 2 wins, 10 losses.  Or more precisely, it’s 2 wins for candidate Christy Clark, and 10 wins for the NDP Opposition, which won five by-elections against the Social Credit government between 1984-1989, and five against the BC Liberals between 2004-2016.

Table 1: BC by-elections since 1981 in government held seats

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The average swing against the incumbent government of the day since 1981 is 26%, ranging from a massive 59% swing in Surrey-Panorama in 2004 to a 6 point swing in favour of the government in the by-election that elected Premier Christy Clark in Westside-Kelowna in 2013, the only example where the government improved its position.

Since 2008, leaving Christy Clark out of it, the swings range from 14% to 36%.

The high-stakes Point Grey by-election of 2011, won by Christy Clark, had a 7% swing against the BC Liberal government.  In hindsight, it was a very risky move to run there.

The swing that is needed for the BC Liberals to win Nanaimo is 15%.

Therefore, the swing required for the BC Liberals to win Nanaimo is on the low end of the spectrum.

If I was an NDP strategist, I would be a little nervous about this.  The BC Liberals will be fired up for this opportunity.  There will be no shortage of volunteers and money.  If the free enterprise base can’t be motivated for a high-stakes by-election like this, then the Party has a deeper problem.  I suspect they will rally to support the local campaign, even if the odds are against them.

Finally, it comes down to candidates.  Candidates make a big difference in a local campaign.  Take Leonard away and the NDP lose support.  There is likely not a candidate who is as strong as Leonard available to the NDP.

The BC Liberals must consider carefully their approach too.  This is an opportunity and the Party should be beating the bushes, talking to local members and identifying a range of potential candidates.

The Greens say they will run a candidate.  They improved their vote in 2017 at no consequence to the NDP.  They were also a serious contender in the 2015 federal election in Nanaimo.

As of today, victory still looks like a tall order for the BC Liberals, but not impossible.  I estimate, with my gut, that the BC Liberals have a 20% chance of victory.  That’s worth fighting for, given the stakes, and given the history of swings against governments in by-elections.

Politics is full of surprises – who would have thought Rachel Notley, Justin Trudeau, Donald Trump, and Doug Ford would be where they are today?  Not to mention John Horgan – he didn’t look like a likely prospect 6-12 months before the election.

The NDP sounded confident in the Province newspaper on Sunday.  “We’re very confident we would win that by-election,” said an NDP official.

Free advice: don’t take the voters for granted.

Especially ones that travel by bathtub.♦

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Ben there, done that

Ben Stewart made way for Premier Christy Clark in 2013 and, last night, the voters of Kelowna West returned him to the BC Legislature to continue his career as MLA.

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Kelowna West MLA-elect Ben Stewart.

Someone had to open up a seat for Premier Christy Clark in 2013 when she was unseated in Vancouver-Pt. Grey despite winning a majority government.  Ben stepped up and, now, he has returned to where he has always truly wanted to be – serving his constituents in the BC Legislature.

Making way for defeated leaders has happened from time to time throughout Canadian history.  Canada’s longest serving prime minister, Rt. Hon. William Lyon Mackenzie King, lost his seat in York North in 1925.  A seat was made available in Prince Albert, Saskatchewan in 1926 which he won.  He stayed put in Prince Albert until 1945 when he lost his seat again and returned to run in a by-election in Glengarry, Ontario for his final term.  During that 19 year stretch in Prince Albert, he even managed to defeat a young, upstart named John Diefenbaker (the only time two people who served as prime ministers faced each other in an election?).

Ben Stewart’s resignation and return is not the first time this has happened in modern BC political times.  In 1975, NDP Premier Dave Barrett rushed to an election, in part to head off the revival of the Social Credit Party under Bill Bennett.  It didn’t work.  Bennett rallied the forces opposed to the NDP and vanquished the Barrett government, including Barrett himself who lost his seat in Coquitlam to Socred George Kerster by 18 votes.  Vancouver East MLA Bob Williams made way for Barrett, triggering a 1976 by-election that Barrett easily won.  After Barrett’s third successive defeat to Bennett in 1983, he retired and returned the seat to Bob Williams who was elected in a 1984 by-election. Williams had the additional task of fending off newly elected BC Liberal leader Art Lee, the first and only Chinese Canadian political leader of a major party in BC history.  Williams easily won and served until 1991.

As for the significance of the Kelowna-West by-election, here are the results for the last four times those voters went to the polls:

Table 1: Westside-Kelowna (2013) and Kelowna West (2017-8) results

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The 2017 by-election was the first time in four elections since 2013 (two by-elections and two general elections) that four parties had contested the seat.  (The name of the riding changed but the boundaries are identical).

No one party can claim any type of breakthrough.   The BC Liberals held their support, and given that there were two minor parties this time, losing a couple of points compared to previous efforts was bound to happen. (The final by-election results will not be available for a couple of weeks as Section 98-106 votes have not yet been counted.  It likely won’t change much.)

The NDP have slid in the riding since the 2013 general election, which reflects the move away from the NDP in the Interior in the 2017 election, but moreso, it’s the impact of the Greens showing up on the ballot in 2017 and 2018, splitting their vote a bit.  I wouldn’t be too fussed by this result if I was John Horgan.  They didn’t expect to win this and, in the 1990s, when they were deeply unpopular, they would be obliterated in such by-elections.   That wasn’t the case here.

The BC Conservatives returned to the ballot in the 2018 by-election but had a very similar result to the 2013 by-election and much less than 2013 general election.  In 1973, the BC Conservatives had stress tested the then Coalition party (the Socreds) in a by-election in South Okanagan to replace the retiring WAC Bennett.  BC Conservative leader Derrill Warren challenged WAC’s son, Bill Bennett.  The younger Bennett (39%) defeated Warren (24%), settling the issue.  This was significant as, arguably, Warren’s performance in the 1972 general election was a key factor in defeating the Socred government and electing the NDP.  After the ’73 by-election, Warren left BC politics, senior Conservatives joined the Socreds, and Bennett went on to be premier.  The Kelowna West by-election yesterday was decidedly uneventful by comparison.

It’s the Greens that should be down in the mouth.  Despite the controversy over the PipeWine dispute, the NDP held its second place standing comfortably over the bronze Greens.  If anything, it may show that as long as the NDP and Greens are in cahoots, it will be difficult for the Greens to make a relative gain against their Coalition partners.  Maybe they’re happy playing second fiddle.

For new BC Liberal leader Andrew Wilkinson, he gets a win under his belt, even if it was gift-wrapped.  His team is back to 42 seats in the Legislature with no nasty surprises.

The Trudeau Liberals unwrap a new seat

Monday’s by-elections can be viewed as a win for the governing Liberals.  They held two seats and won a third from the Conservatives.  In answer to my November 20th post, the voters in South Surrey-White Rock gave like Santa to the Liberals and passed out votes like Scrooge to the Conservatives.

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That present is from South Surrey-White Rock

By-elections are a great opportunity to send a message.  If the government is screwing up, why not vote against them and shake it up?  Evidently, there’s not a lot of voter anger in South Surrey-White Rock.

In Monday’s by-elections, the only riding where the Liberal popular vote actually went up was South Surrey-White Rock, which was the only place the Conservative vote went down.

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Andrew Scheer’s Conservatives can take some consolation that they reduced the margin-of-victory in Scarborough-Agincourt from 13.9% to 8.9%, and they scraped themselves off the basement floor in Newfoundland, though they haven’t found the stairs yet.  In Saskatchewan, like Alberta, they ran up the score, which is nice, but not very meaningful.  As for the Liberals, I doubt they are too concerned about the ridings where they slipped.  In all three cases, the result looked inevitable, and tough to motivate voters in that case.

South Surrey-White Rock should sting a bit for the Conservatives.  This was a safe seat in 2011 and for decades before that.  In 2011, a backbench Conservative MP edged the Liberal 53% to 19%.  That’s a remarkable turnaround in six years.

The notion of a Liberal win was unthinkable in the summer of 2015.  Liberal strategists had a hard time believing the numbers they were seeing from that riding, against Dianne Watts no less.  They almost beat her despite sacking their candidate halfway through the campaign.  The Liberals had no history of winning there.  They couldn’t even win in Surrey during Trudeaumania I when they took two-thirds of the seats in BC – and the Liberal candidate was “nursery man” Bill Vander Zalm.  Trudeaumania plus the Zalm?  How could they lose?

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So, there has been a change in South Surrey-White Rock and it remains to be seen if it will be a sea change.   Liberals may have a bit of deja vu when it comes to winning federal by-elections in BC.  In 1998, a Reform MP resigned in Port Moody-Coquitlam and, very similar to South Surrey-White Rock, the Liberals ran a popular mayor, Lou Sekora, while the Reform Party ran a parachute candidate from Langley.  Sekora won in a riding the Liberals had not held in a long, long time.  In 2000, a young whippersnapper by the name of James Moore defeated Sekora and went on to hold the seat for 15 years.

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Lou Sekora: lost to a young whippersnapper

Let’s not forget about the NDP.  In Monday’s by-elections, their share of vote dropped in all four races.  While none of these seats were NDP targets, they certainly did not demonstrate any grassroots enthusiasm for the new NDP leader.

Congratulations to Gordie Hogg and the Liberals.  We’ll see if success in South Surrey-White Rock is fleeting or not.  Andrew Scheer and the Conservatives did not collapse, on the contrary, they made some incremental progress.  But where it mattered, they could not rally their base to withstand a vigorous effort by the Liberals.  Now that the government is in the back nine of its mandate and showing its resilience, Scheer will not be able to count on the government losing the election – he will have to try to find a way to win it.  A tall order for any Opposition.