Predictions: putting your money where your mouth is

Are you convinced there will be a minority government?  Put your money where you mouth is.

The UBC Sauder School is running a predictions market again where participants invest their own cash (up to $1000) to bet on the outcome of the election.  Anyone can register and invest.

As of August 11, a minority government will yield $1.00 if it is purchased at today’s price of 58 cents.  Not a bad return.  An even better return is a Conservative majority.  You can buy that share for 17 cents today for a $1.00 payoff.  600% return.  Of course, if it doesn’t happen, you lose your investment.

The popular vote market closely follows the public polls.  Intuitive campaigners can make a few bucks if they foresee polling inaccuracies or can see through emotional betting.

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