Why Conservatives have hope

Conservatives who pay attention to media polls are praying for a turnout advantage based on older voters and firmly committed supporters.  And supporters of other stripes will want to head into the weekend with their eyes wide open.  I’m sure complacency is not an issue for anyone.

I’m not sure this praying cat is Conservative, but who doesn’t like a praying cat?

Today’s Angus Reid Institute (ARI) – hint, older people more likely to vote:

Screen Shot 2015-10-16 at 2.11.29 PM

Then there’s this:

Screen Shot 2015-10-16 at 2.25.51 PM

ARI looks specifically at likely voters, shrinking Liberal lead from 35-31 to 34-33:

Screen Shot 2015-10-16 at 2.14.37 PM

Today’s EKOS (65 and over):

Screen Shot 2015-10-16 at 2.12.36 PM

Ekos has overall race at 34 Lib, 33 CPC.

Is there a Liberal surge?  Nanos has six point Liberal lead and Liberal strength among seniors.  Mainstreet is predicting a Liberal majority.  Innovative also has a big red spread.

Ekos and ARI provide counter-evidence to suggest the CPC are far from dead and buried.  Not in majority territory (I don’t think we have a David Cameron surprise here) but still in the hunt for a plurality.

Pick your poison.


    1. The Alberta election was a good example of how the popular vote relates to big city / small city / rural seats. Basically, the NDP had massive support in Edmonton while Wildrose led in rural Alberta. Because rural seats had a smaller population, Wildrose did not need as many province-wide votes to win seats. The NDP required their 40% of the vote to get their majority. It was possible for Wildrose to have won the election with 5 or 6 points less than the NDP. And demonstrating their efficiency, Wildrose had fewer votes than the PCs but won many more seats. In 1979, Joe Clark won a plurality despite trailing PET by almost 5% in the popular vote. PET won big margins in Quebec but Joe’s vote was spread more evenly over the battleground. In BC, the Liberal vote will be concentrated in the City and ridings near Vancouver. It is expected they will drop to third in the BC Interior and third or fourth on the Island. The NDP has footholds in the city, suburbs, Interior and Island and risk losing seats if they slip below a certain pop vote threshold. THe difference between, say, 26% and 32% of the pop vote in BC could be a dozen seats or more. CPC are strong in the Fraser Valley and BC Interior but will find it difficult to hold seats where the Liberals have been strong, on the Island where the NDP have a base, and in the suburbs where there will be 3-way battles. It’s very dynamic and slight fluctuations could be the difference between running the table or finishing second in a lot of ridings.



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