Conservatives who pay attention to media polls are praying for a turnout advantage based on older voters and firmly committed supporters. And supporters of other stripes will want to head into the weekend with their eyes wide open. I’m sure complacency is not an issue for anyone.
Today’s Angus Reid Institute (ARI) – hint, older people more likely to vote:
Then there’s this:
ARI looks specifically at likely voters, shrinking Liberal lead from 35-31 to 34-33:
Today’s EKOS (65 and over):
Ekos has overall race at 34 Lib, 33 CPC.
Is there a Liberal surge? Nanos has six point Liberal lead and Liberal strength among seniors. Mainstreet is predicting a Liberal majority. Innovative also has a big red spread.
Ekos and ARI provide counter-evidence to suggest the CPC are far from dead and buried. Not in majority territory (I don’t think we have a David Cameron surprise here) but still in the hunt for a plurality.
Pick your poison.