The last time the Liberals defeated an incumbent Conservative government was in 1993.
Jean Chretien’s Liberals took 41.2% of the vote compared to Justin Trudeau’s 39.5%. Similar.
The regions tell an interesting story. Justin did 6.4% better in BC than Chretien, 9.9% better in Nova Scotia, and 10.3% better in Manitoba. Chretien was higher in Ontario and Quebec (marginally).
In terms of BC, Chretien took six seats in 1993; Trudeau took 17 in 2015.
Chart: Comparison of Liberal Popular vote by province – 1993 and 2015
| 1993 | 2015 | DIFF | |
| BC | 28.8% | 35.2% | 6.4% |
| Ab | 24.0% | 24.6% | 0.6% |
| Sk | 24.7% | 23.9% | -0.8% |
| Mb | 34.3% | 44.6% | 10.3% |
| Ont | 49.5% | 44.8% | -4.7% |
| Que | 36.7% | 35.7% | -1.0% |
| NB | 56.0% | 51.6% | -4.4% |
| NS | 52.0% | 61.9% | 9.9% |
| PEI | 60.1% | 58.3% | -1.8% |
| Nfld | 67.3% | 64.5% | -2.8% |
| National | 41.2% | 39.5% | -1.7% |
Rosedeer 