Trudeau’s voter coalition stronger in BC and MB than Chretien’s 1993 win

The last time the Liberals defeated an incumbent Conservative government was in 1993.

Jean Chretien’s Liberals took 41.2% of the vote compared to Justin Trudeau’s 39.5%.  Similar.

The regions tell an interesting story.  Justin did 6.4% better in BC than Chretien, 9.9% better in Nova Scotia, and 10.3% better in Manitoba.  Chretien was higher in Ontario and Quebec (marginally).

In terms of BC, Chretien took six seats in 1993; Trudeau took 17 in 2015.

Chart: Comparison of Liberal Popular vote by province – 1993 and 2015

1993 2015 LIB

1993 2015 DIFF
BC 28.8% 35.2% 6.4%
Ab 24.0% 24.6% 0.6%
Sk 24.7% 23.9% -0.8%
Mb 34.3% 44.6% 10.3%
Ont 49.5% 44.8% -4.7%
Que 36.7% 35.7% -1.0%
NB 56.0% 51.6% -4.4%
NS 52.0% 61.9% 9.9%
PEI 60.1% 58.3% -1.8%
Nfld 67.3% 64.5% -2.8%
National 41.2% 39.5% -1.7%

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